Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday

The SPC in Norman has placed much of Ohio and southern Ontario (if extrapolated) in a Slight Risk of Severe storms. However, some rather significant severe weather is possible, depending on what happens during the morning hours tomorrow. The SPC expects thunderstorms to be in the area in the morning, which will weaken and eventually die off. This will allow for moderate destabilization with MLCAPE reaching about 3000J/kg by mid afternoon. This combined with shear around 35-40kts will allow for good storm organization to occur.

Storms are expected to be supercells as the develop during the mid afternoon, and eventually form into bowing segments. Some isolated tornadoes are possible, and you can see that clearly as the GFS is depicting large, curved hodographs:

I will be able to update at least once tomorrow to give a brief summary of what's going on, but I won't be able to do much other than that. Stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service for more information and watches/warnings throughout the day tomorrow!

Scattered Thunderstorms Likely for the Weekend

Scattered Thunderstorms are likely across all of Ohio, southern Michigan and southern Ontario this weekend as a surface low in the plains slowly moves east. There is a slight chance for severe weather with these storms, which could contain damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. There is also a flash flood watch for northern Ohio after heavy rainfall yesterday.

SPC Outlooks:
Today:

Tomorrow:

Many of these storms will be slow moving due to weak upper level winds and low shear, so any storms that do develop may "sit" over a small area for a long period of time. However, a general storm motion of about 20-25mph will be more common.

Hot temperatures will also reside over the entire area once again, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler after this system moves out, but temps will rebound into the mid 90s again next week. Check the NWS for any heat warnings/advisories for your area.

Finally, I'm leaving for Colorado later today, and I'm not sure if or when I'll be able to check in again for the next week. I'll try to at least get on the chat a few times, but I cannot guarantee anything.

Excessive Heat Likely Next Week

Although it has been almost a month since my last post, I've still been following the weather closely. I did not post about the moderate risk day in Ohio, mainly due to the fact that I had no access to a computer during that stretch. Although I've been slowly working on my Fall/Winter outlooks, I felt that this upcoming situation is going to be more important. We are looking at a stretch of of widespread 90-100*F days, lasting until near the end of the month.  This is largely due to this:

This 594dm ridge over the central U.S. will pump in very hot, moist air, with dew points reaching the low to mid 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will cause heat indices of 105 and greater for several days. There will also be strong instability in place, which could create slow moving thunderstorms, which could be severe. The SPC has already placed Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for Monday. The main threats would be large hail and damaging winds, with a very low tornado risk. 

This heat won't just be short lived. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a 80% chance or greater of above average temperatures, for both the 6-10 Day, and 8-14 day outlooks:

There does not appear to be any relief from the heat in the next 2-3 weeks, and July will likely be one of the warmest on records for Toledo, Columbus, and Cleveland.

Stay tuned for any updates regarding this and any other significant weather.

Slight Risk of Severe Storms Today

The SPC has placed all of Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms today.  The main threat will be damaging winds, along with large hail, and a very isolated tornado. Storms have already developed in Indiana and Michigan and are moving East to Northeast very slowly.  These storms should arrive by this early afternoon. Depending on how much destabilization can occur, these storms may strengthen and turn severe.

A dense fog advisory is also in effect for most of Northern Ohio until 9AM.

3 Consecutive Days of Severe Thunderstorms Possible

It appears are first big week for severe storms is coming up tomorrow through Wednesday.  A powerful summer storm will move across the Plains into the Midwest tomorrow, bringing a 4 day period (Today, but not here) of severe storms with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of Southern Ontario. As the warm front clears parts of southern Ohio today, there will be a slight chance for some isolated severe storms today, but it does not appear that it will be anything major.

Tomorrow could be an interesting day, with the warm front reaching the Ohio/Michigan border by the early afternoon.  Shear should be quite high tomorrow, supporting storm organization, and some scattered storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be likely.  An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Tuesday, and Wednesday also have a lot of potential, but I'll cover those later tonight

Severe Weather Today

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Northern and Central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threat will be damaging winds, along with some isolated severe hail reports. The tornado threat today appears very limited right now, but one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out. It appears that one or two MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) will be developing later today, moving ESE through the 30% wind risk zone. A very unstable atmosphere characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 3000J/kg, along with DCAPE in excess 1200J/kg, should allow storms to become severe, and produce damaging wind gusts. Steep Lapse rates should at least produce a few scattered hail reports, but an elevated freezing level will keep the number of reports down a bit. Storms are expected to develop by 18-20z (2-4PM), and last into the early nighttime hours.

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, along with the SPC and your local NWS weather office for any additional updates. I will be online for most of the afternoon.

More Severe Weather Today

At the 12:30 PM update, the SPC put much of Northern Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for today. At this time, damaging winds gusts appear to be the main threat, with hail be a secondary threat. The tornado risk appears to be quite limited at this time. Storms are expected to develop over Indiana later this afternoon and move east at 40-50mph.

Parameters in Ohio are some of the most impressive I've seen in the last few years, so if storms do manage to develop, they should quickly become severe. 500mb winds are around 50kts, with shear limited as of right now, but that should slowly change during the day. SBCAPE is in excess of 4000J/kg in most of Ohio, along with LI's of -10. Lapse Rates are around 8.5. Although SRH is limited as of now, I have a feeling that we could see more storm reports along the I-80/Route 6 corridor in Northern Ohio than we did on Sunday.

One thing to watch is how well the Hi-res models do today after they did not do well last weekend. Although they can be helpful, monitoring radar trends will ultimately be more important than anything else today. If any watches are issued for the area, I will update the blog. As always, pay close attention to the Ohio/Ontario Weather Blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for any updates during the day

Slight/Moderate Risk of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has put northwest and northern Ohio under a slight risk of severe storms for this afternoon. This could possibly be upgraded to a moderate risk by 12:30PM today.

A rapidly destabilizing atmosphere this morning and afternoon will lead to extreme instability here. CAPE in excess of 4000J/kg is possible along the Route 6 to I-80 corridor in Indiana and extreme Northwest Ohio. With 40kts of Bulk shear ahead of the bow echo in Iowa, continued storm organization is likely as it travels East to ENE at 50mph. If this does evolve into a derecho, a large swath of damaging winds and large hail will be likely. Tornadoes are also possible, especially further west into IL/IN as up to 100 degrees of turning from 500mb to the surface is possible. Hodographs show a large, counterclockwise moving line, which would support the idea that some tornadoes could form either within the line, or in discrete cells that travel along the warm front.

A Severe Thunderstorm watch has already been issued for Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana for this possible derecho.

Although I'm confident we see some storms around our area, I'm worried that:

a.) There will be too strong of a CAP (High 700mb temperatures), and that storm development will be slow or nonexistant

b.) The derecho travels along the warm front, which will keep it towards the Ann Arbor/Detroit area.

c.) The derecho weakens, and there isn't enough forcing to create more storms

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for watches, warnings, and other updates

New Pattern to Emerge

After 2 months of consistent winter weather in the area, winter has finally ended. The upcoming pattern for next week supports a much warmer pattern than what we’ve seen dominating the last few weeks.

This should be the warm-up that completely ends winter until next November. Here’s what we have going on with teleconnections. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation on the left, Pacific-North American (PNA) on the right.

As you can see, the GEFS is showing a transition to a +NAO, and –PNA developing by mid to late next week. This would favor a trough in the western U.S., with a ridge in the eastern U.S., which would lead to warmer temperatures.

The GEFS shows the MJO moving into phase 6/7/8 in the next two weeks. When you look at 500mb composites taken from Raleighwx (Allan Huffman’s weather site), it correlates well with the NAO/PNA forecasts, of a ridge over the eastern U.S. This also is shown on the ECMWF, with temperatures skyrocketing by the Day 7 time period.

This warm-up is all tied to the storm before it, which will be a real rainmaker for someone and a severe weather threat for others. Where the low eventually does track will be crucial. Currently the ECMWF has this storm tracking from Chicago into southern Ontario, with severe weather possible as far north as the Ohio/Michigan border. South of the warm front will be a very moist, extremely sheared environment, which would indicate a good potential for severe weather. The SPC also outlined a general area for their Day 5 outlook, including parts of Ohio, and I think this has potential to be another Moderate Risk area day. All of the Great Lakes have a threat for flooding, with the amount of rain currently being forecasted by the ECMWF/GFS.

This is only the beginning of a very active spring, so keep checking back for updates.