Severe Weather Today

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Northern and Central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threat will be damaging winds, along with some isolated severe hail reports. The tornado threat today appears very limited right now, but one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out. It appears that one or two MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) will be developing later today, moving ESE through the 30% wind risk zone. A very unstable atmosphere characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 3000J/kg, along with DCAPE in excess 1200J/kg, should allow storms to become severe, and produce damaging wind gusts. Steep Lapse rates should at least produce a few scattered hail reports, but an elevated freezing level will keep the number of reports down a bit. Storms are expected to develop by 18-20z (2-4PM), and last into the early nighttime hours.

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, along with the SPC and your local NWS weather office for any additional updates. I will be online for most of the afternoon.

More Severe Weather Today

At the 12:30 PM update, the SPC put much of Northern Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for today. At this time, damaging winds gusts appear to be the main threat, with hail be a secondary threat. The tornado risk appears to be quite limited at this time. Storms are expected to develop over Indiana later this afternoon and move east at 40-50mph.

Parameters in Ohio are some of the most impressive I've seen in the last few years, so if storms do manage to develop, they should quickly become severe. 500mb winds are around 50kts, with shear limited as of right now, but that should slowly change during the day. SBCAPE is in excess of 4000J/kg in most of Ohio, along with LI's of -10. Lapse Rates are around 8.5. Although SRH is limited as of now, I have a feeling that we could see more storm reports along the I-80/Route 6 corridor in Northern Ohio than we did on Sunday.

One thing to watch is how well the Hi-res models do today after they did not do well last weekend. Although they can be helpful, monitoring radar trends will ultimately be more important than anything else today. If any watches are issued for the area, I will update the blog. As always, pay close attention to the Ohio/Ontario Weather Blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for any updates during the day

Slight/Moderate Risk of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has put northwest and northern Ohio under a slight risk of severe storms for this afternoon. This could possibly be upgraded to a moderate risk by 12:30PM today.

A rapidly destabilizing atmosphere this morning and afternoon will lead to extreme instability here. CAPE in excess of 4000J/kg is possible along the Route 6 to I-80 corridor in Indiana and extreme Northwest Ohio. With 40kts of Bulk shear ahead of the bow echo in Iowa, continued storm organization is likely as it travels East to ENE at 50mph. If this does evolve into a derecho, a large swath of damaging winds and large hail will be likely. Tornadoes are also possible, especially further west into IL/IN as up to 100 degrees of turning from 500mb to the surface is possible. Hodographs show a large, counterclockwise moving line, which would support the idea that some tornadoes could form either within the line, or in discrete cells that travel along the warm front.

A Severe Thunderstorm watch has already been issued for Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana for this possible derecho.

Although I'm confident we see some storms around our area, I'm worried that:

a.) There will be too strong of a CAP (High 700mb temperatures), and that storm development will be slow or nonexistant

b.) The derecho travels along the warm front, which will keep it towards the Ann Arbor/Detroit area.

c.) The derecho weakens, and there isn't enough forcing to create more storms

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for watches, warnings, and other updates

Slight to Moderate Risk of Severe Storms

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As I expected, there is a potential tornado outbreak to track in Indiana-which will move into western Ohio by later that evening. As the warm front clears later in the day, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize. CAPE values will rise to AOA (At or above) 2000J/kg by 8PM. During this time, supercells are expected to develop in Indiana and Illinois, which will move into western Ohio. The HRRR is showing over 70kts of bulk shear in NWOH, and large clockwise turning hodographs, the potential for tornadoes, some strong, it very high, especially in Indiana and South/West. These supercells will also contain large hail and the threat of mircobursts, so this is definitely something to watch very carefully. I will not be able to access the quick chat on the side of the blog, but I will still be able to post throughout the day.