Severe Weather Outbreak Underway

As expected, there has been a significant development of storms in the last few hours. Much of Western Ohio and Indiana are now under a Tornado watch until late this evening. As of right now (3PM), the warm front from a 1000mb surface low in north/central IN is located across the Route 6 corridor. As a result, a strong temperature gradient exists, with Toledo in the mid 50s with a light northerly breeze, while Findlay is in the middle sixties with a strong southely breeze. Although cloud cover has kept intability down, severe storms have sufficient fuel with a 90kt wind at 500mb, this is an incredible situation. Even winds at 925mb are at 50kts in NWOH!

As I type, storms in Indiana and extreme NWOH are moving NW at around 50-60mph. This direction has limited easteward movement of these storms in the last hour or two. However, slow movement east is expected as the cold front pushes east later this afternoon. The SPC has kept the 10% hatched tornado probs in areas that have had more instability develop. A large area of 50kt 0-1km shear will be plenty enough to aid for potentially strong tornadoes today.

This is a serious situation. If you are in the path of these storms, take cover immediately. The potential for tornadoes, potentially strong, exists. The greatest potential for tornadoes is a triangle from Findlay, OH to Colubmus, to Indianapolis, IN.

Slight Risk for Severe Storms Today

The SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms in much of Ohio today. This is largely due to upper level dynamics, rather than instability like we see during the spring and summer months. A low pressure system will move across Michigan this afternoon, with a cold front extending through IL/IN. Storms will initiate just ahead of the cold front, which will move east at a fast pace. The main threat will be damaging winds, but tornadoes are definitely a possibility due to strong dynamics aloft. The SPC has recently upgraded to a high end slight risk- and depending on how the afternoon evolves, an upgrade to a moderate risk of storms is possible in later updates, probably in a triangle from Indy to Lima to Columbus.

The most impressive thing about today is the upper level winds. Winds at 500mb are approximately 60-90kts, which will lead to an incredible amount of shear. What's also extremely impressive thing about this event is the 190kt jet streak over northern Michigan. That is not very typical for a mid-November storm, so today could be a very unusual day. Storm motion will likely be WNW at around 60mph, so be alert for ever changing conditions in your area. Today has the potential to be somewhat similar to November 2002, which had a strong tornadoes across the Great Lakes area. While the size of that outbreak was much larger, the potential for a few strong tornadoes is present today.

Stay tuned to the SPC, NWS, and The Ohio/Ontario weather blog for more updates during the day

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday

The SPC in Norman has placed much of Ohio and southern Ontario (if extrapolated) in a Slight Risk of Severe storms. However, some rather significant severe weather is possible, depending on what happens during the morning hours tomorrow. The SPC expects thunderstorms to be in the area in the morning, which will weaken and eventually die off. This will allow for moderate destabilization with MLCAPE reaching about 3000J/kg by mid afternoon. This combined with shear around 35-40kts will allow for good storm organization to occur.

Storms are expected to be supercells as the develop during the mid afternoon, and eventually form into bowing segments. Some isolated tornadoes are possible, and you can see that clearly as the GFS is depicting large, curved hodographs:

I will be able to update at least once tomorrow to give a brief summary of what's going on, but I won't be able to do much other than that. Stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service for more information and watches/warnings throughout the day tomorrow!

Scattered Thunderstorms Likely for the Weekend

Scattered Thunderstorms are likely across all of Ohio, southern Michigan and southern Ontario this weekend as a surface low in the plains slowly moves east. There is a slight chance for severe weather with these storms, which could contain damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. There is also a flash flood watch for northern Ohio after heavy rainfall yesterday.

SPC Outlooks:
Today:

Tomorrow:

Many of these storms will be slow moving due to weak upper level winds and low shear, so any storms that do develop may "sit" over a small area for a long period of time. However, a general storm motion of about 20-25mph will be more common.

Hot temperatures will also reside over the entire area once again, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler after this system moves out, but temps will rebound into the mid 90s again next week. Check the NWS for any heat warnings/advisories for your area.

Finally, I'm leaving for Colorado later today, and I'm not sure if or when I'll be able to check in again for the next week. I'll try to at least get on the chat a few times, but I cannot guarantee anything.

Severe Storms Possible Today

After a very dry start to June, there is a decent chance of severe storms today in Ohio, especially in the western portions of the state.  Leftover rain from an MCS is moving rapidly out of NW/West Ohio, which will clear out by 11AM.  This will lead to strong surface heating as a warm front moves up to the Ohio/Michigan border by the early afternoon.  A weak surface low will track into lower Michigan, with helicity values reaching 300m2/s2. This combined with shear around 30-40kts will allow for some isolated supercell development along the warm front, as long as there is decent lift to spawn those storms.

Sound familiar?  It's almost the exact same setup as June 5th, 2010.  This is an analogue that I never expected to use again- but the similarities are there.  There are two big differences though, which will prevent this from being as big of an event as that was.  First is shear- there is very little shear south of the warm front today.  Second, is Low Pressure strength. That event had a 1004mb low, this has about a 1010mb low.  However, the timing of frontal positions, etc. is extremely similar to that day.

Pay close attention later today.  Storms that develop along the warm front, while still is a moderately sheared atmosphere, have the potential to rotate very quickly, and proudce a tornado. The chances for tornadoes are still low (5% on the SPC outlook), and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail from multicell clusters.  

Stay tuned to the SPC and your local NWS forecast office for any updates on watches and warnings.

One Year Anniversary of the Millbury EF-4 Tornado

A year ago today, a small community was left devastated by the first EF-4 tornado since Van Wert in 2002, and the first in Wood County since 1953. During the middle of the night, a tornado ripped through Lake High School and moved into Millbury, killing 7 along the way. The next morning, the full extent of the damage was finally known, and the images of that day still haunt me.

This event has stuck with me every time I look at the computer models while making a forecast. I always have wondered if there was anything else myself, the National Weather Service, and Local Media outlets could have done to help prevent this. It was an impossible question to answer. I had been standing about 400 feet from where the tornado roared through Millbury 12 hours before it hit. When I saw the devastation on TV- I kept thinking that if had hit earlier that day, I might not be here writing this today.

That morning, you could tell something was different. It was hard to desrcibe- but the humidity felt more oppressive, and everything was silent. No birds chirping, nothing. Only the sound of a soccer game on a field that was narrowly missed by the tornado later that day. It didn't seem that weird at the time though- it was cloudy, and it even rained a bit in the early afternoon. Normally big severe weather days have a very sunny sky, with instability skyrocketing.

This wasn't the case on June 5th, where wind shear and dynamics were largely responsible for the tornadoes in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio that day. Over 50kts of Effective Shear and Effective SRH over 500m2/s2 was absolutely stunning to see so late in the day. Coupled with some minor instability from some clearing late in the day, it was a setup that had the potential to produce tornadoes- some violent. The SPC issued a Tornado Watch at 1010PM, and the first tornado report occurred at 1038 that night. The Millbury tornado hit 70 minutes later.

This was by far the worst tornado outbreak in the last decade for Northwest Ohio, and I hope I never see a similar setup here again. This will be a day I will always remember- and I hope anyone who reads this will too. Keep those who were affected by this tornado outbreak, and all the tornadoes this year in your thoughts and prayers.

Severe Weather Today

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Northern and Central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms today. The main threat will be damaging winds, along with some isolated severe hail reports. The tornado threat today appears very limited right now, but one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out. It appears that one or two MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) will be developing later today, moving ESE through the 30% wind risk zone. A very unstable atmosphere characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 3000J/kg, along with DCAPE in excess 1200J/kg, should allow storms to become severe, and produce damaging wind gusts. Steep Lapse rates should at least produce a few scattered hail reports, but an elevated freezing level will keep the number of reports down a bit. Storms are expected to develop by 18-20z (2-4PM), and last into the early nighttime hours.

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, along with the SPC and your local NWS weather office for any additional updates. I will be online for most of the afternoon.

More Severe Weather Today

At the 12:30 PM update, the SPC put much of Northern Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for today. At this time, damaging winds gusts appear to be the main threat, with hail be a secondary threat. The tornado risk appears to be quite limited at this time. Storms are expected to develop over Indiana later this afternoon and move east at 40-50mph.

Parameters in Ohio are some of the most impressive I've seen in the last few years, so if storms do manage to develop, they should quickly become severe. 500mb winds are around 50kts, with shear limited as of right now, but that should slowly change during the day. SBCAPE is in excess of 4000J/kg in most of Ohio, along with LI's of -10. Lapse Rates are around 8.5. Although SRH is limited as of now, I have a feeling that we could see more storm reports along the I-80/Route 6 corridor in Northern Ohio than we did on Sunday.

One thing to watch is how well the Hi-res models do today after they did not do well last weekend. Although they can be helpful, monitoring radar trends will ultimately be more important than anything else today. If any watches are issued for the area, I will update the blog. As always, pay close attention to the Ohio/Ontario Weather Blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for any updates during the day

Slight/Moderate Risk of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has put northwest and northern Ohio under a slight risk of severe storms for this afternoon. This could possibly be upgraded to a moderate risk by 12:30PM today.

A rapidly destabilizing atmosphere this morning and afternoon will lead to extreme instability here. CAPE in excess of 4000J/kg is possible along the Route 6 to I-80 corridor in Indiana and extreme Northwest Ohio. With 40kts of Bulk shear ahead of the bow echo in Iowa, continued storm organization is likely as it travels East to ENE at 50mph. If this does evolve into a derecho, a large swath of damaging winds and large hail will be likely. Tornadoes are also possible, especially further west into IL/IN as up to 100 degrees of turning from 500mb to the surface is possible. Hodographs show a large, counterclockwise moving line, which would support the idea that some tornadoes could form either within the line, or in discrete cells that travel along the warm front.

A Severe Thunderstorm watch has already been issued for Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana for this possible derecho.

Although I'm confident we see some storms around our area, I'm worried that:

a.) There will be too strong of a CAP (High 700mb temperatures), and that storm development will be slow or nonexistant

b.) The derecho travels along the warm front, which will keep it towards the Ann Arbor/Detroit area.

c.) The derecho weakens, and there isn't enough forcing to create more storms

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for watches, warnings, and other updates

Slight to Moderate Risk of Severe Storms

[Images Removed]

As I expected, there is a potential tornado outbreak to track in Indiana-which will move into western Ohio by later that evening. As the warm front clears later in the day, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize. CAPE values will rise to AOA (At or above) 2000J/kg by 8PM. During this time, supercells are expected to develop in Indiana and Illinois, which will move into western Ohio. The HRRR is showing over 70kts of bulk shear in NWOH, and large clockwise turning hodographs, the potential for tornadoes, some strong, it very high, especially in Indiana and South/West. These supercells will also contain large hail and the threat of mircobursts, so this is definitely something to watch very carefully. I will not be able to access the quick chat on the side of the blog, but I will still be able to post throughout the day.

Moderate Risk of Severe Storms

The SPC has upgraded Northern Ohio into a Moderate Risk of severe storms today. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with large hail (Some >1.5") also possible. Storms are still expected to move into NWOH by 4-6PM.

New Pattern to Emerge

After 2 months of consistent winter weather in the area, winter has finally ended. The upcoming pattern for next week supports a much warmer pattern than what we’ve seen dominating the last few weeks.

This should be the warm-up that completely ends winter until next November. Here’s what we have going on with teleconnections. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation on the left, Pacific-North American (PNA) on the right.

As you can see, the GEFS is showing a transition to a +NAO, and –PNA developing by mid to late next week. This would favor a trough in the western U.S., with a ridge in the eastern U.S., which would lead to warmer temperatures.

The GEFS shows the MJO moving into phase 6/7/8 in the next two weeks. When you look at 500mb composites taken from Raleighwx (Allan Huffman’s weather site), it correlates well with the NAO/PNA forecasts, of a ridge over the eastern U.S. This also is shown on the ECMWF, with temperatures skyrocketing by the Day 7 time period.

This warm-up is all tied to the storm before it, which will be a real rainmaker for someone and a severe weather threat for others. Where the low eventually does track will be crucial. Currently the ECMWF has this storm tracking from Chicago into southern Ontario, with severe weather possible as far north as the Ohio/Michigan border. South of the warm front will be a very moist, extremely sheared environment, which would indicate a good potential for severe weather. The SPC also outlined a general area for their Day 5 outlook, including parts of Ohio, and I think this has potential to be another Moderate Risk area day. All of the Great Lakes have a threat for flooding, with the amount of rain currently being forecasted by the ECMWF/GFS.

This is only the beginning of a very active spring, so keep checking back for updates.

Spring Storm to Bring Snow, Severe Weather

This was an extremely difficult forecast to make, and a map would be pretty difficult to illustrate my thoughts. Ice will be a bigger concern than I expected- with ice accumulations of about .25-.5" across Michigan, with the worst ice occurring somewhere between Detroit to Lake Orion. Areas around Ann Arbor will be getting more rain then anything else. Towards northern Michigan, temperatures will be cold enough to support a very good snowfall, with accumulations of 8"+ Possible. In Ontario, the axis of snow should be from Owen Sound to London, with accumulations around 2-4" on the borders of the snow axis, and about 4-8" in other areas. It wouldn't surprise me if areas towards Hamilton got over 8-12", because more precipitation will be falling there. South of Hamilton should get a mix of ice and rain, with warmer temperatures keeping the precipitation from being snow.

Selected cities forecast:

Detroit, MI- 1-2" snow, .2-.4" ice

Pontiac/Lake Orion, MI: 1-2" snow, .3-.6" ice

London, ONT: 2-5" snow, glaze of ice

Owen Sound, ONT: 1-3" snow

Toronto: 4-7" snow

Hamilton, ONT: 6-12" snow

Toledo, OH: T-1/2" snow, minimal ice

Cleveland, OH: T-1" snow, minimal ice

Another thing to watch is severe weather across central and southern Ohio. The SPC has placed those areas in a risk of severe storms:

As you can see, the current threat appears to be from a Cincinnati to Marietta line, along with areas in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. People in Dayton, Columbus, and Newark should also pay attention to the weather tomorrow, and listen for watches and warnings to be issued.

All types of severe weather are possible tomorrow, as these storms will develop along a very strong warm front. You can tell where the warm front is currently, as there is a 15-20 degree difference from Cincy to Dayton. This will slowly move northward tomorrow, bringing a moist and unstable airmass to most of Ohio. Some decent destabilization should be able to occur tomorrow, and in a very sheared environment. Although Hodographs aren't very curved (supporting supercells/tornadoes), discrete cells, and scattered bowed segments are likely to occur in the risk area tomorrow afternoon. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. These storms will also be racing east at 40-60mph, and if tornado warnings are issued, could create some very dangerous travel conditions.

After tomorrow, a cold airmass really settles in and overtakes the area for several days. There is still a potential for snow in Ohio during this period, but any specific details are unknown at this point. I will have an update on both the snow and severe storms either later tonight or tomorrow morning.