A rapidly destabilizing atmosphere this morning and afternoon will lead to extreme instability here. CAPE in excess of 4000J/kg is possible along the Route 6 to I-80 corridor in Indiana and extreme Northwest Ohio. With 40kts of Bulk shear ahead of the bow echo in Iowa, continued storm organization is likely as it travels East to ENE at 50mph. If this does evolve into a derecho, a large swath of damaging winds and large hail will be likely. Tornadoes are also possible, especially further west into IL/IN as up to 100 degrees of turning from 500mb to the surface is possible. Hodographs show a large, counterclockwise moving line, which would support the idea that some tornadoes could form either within the line, or in discrete cells that travel along the warm front.
A Severe Thunderstorm watch has already been issued for Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana for this possible derecho.
Although I'm confident we see some storms around our area, I'm worried that:
a.) There will be too strong of a CAP (High 700mb temperatures), and that storm development will be slow or nonexistant
b.) The derecho travels along the warm front, which will keep it towards the Ann Arbor/Detroit area.
c.) The derecho weakens, and there isn't enough forcing to create more storms
Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for watches, warnings, and other updates
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