Lake Effect Snow Outbreak

As I've mentioned a few times in the chat to the right of this post, I am not used to forecasting Lake Effect snow, especially when these high amounts are likely. However, I will at least attempt to put up a snow map for this, despite the potential for it to bust horribly.


NORTHWEST OHIO:
Light snow has fallen in several places, with Bowling Green already closing in on an inch due to a very heavy snow band earlier this evening. However, most places have about 1/2" of snow already. (3/4" here).
As winds are forecasted to turn WNW during the early morning hours on Tuesday, this will lead to a few bands from Lake Michigan reaching NWOH by early morning:

These bands will be able to produce light snowfall accumulations in NWOH, where I expect 1-3" of snowfall by late tomorrow evening. Lake Effect Snow is uncommon here, and it's interesting to see how bullish some models are with total snowfall here. However, as wind direction turns more NW during the evening, these bands will diminish and slowly sink south and west of the area, which will conclude the event. With windy conditions and cold, this could make roads snow-covered and dangerous for the area.

NORTHERN & NORTHEAST OHIO:
This will be where the main show is for this lake effect. I'm still learning details with LES stuff, but I can already tell the big signs here. WNW/NW flow, boundry layer RH skyrocketing, -18C 850s, and plenty of lake instability (Lake temps are 4C). That should be enough for a significant LES outbreak, but because of strong winds, the main snows will be just south of the lakeshore. However, if winds are not as strong as forecasted, snow totals could be higher in those areas (Lorain, Avon Lake, Cleveland). Expecting 3-6" there, but could be more, even approaching 8, 9 or even 10" if a heavy band could stall for a few hours. Could see some thundersnow in some bands too, given the amount of instability.

Here's my map for the storm (again, first time LES forecasting):

AGAIN: I am concerned that there will be higher totals, especially in Lorain, Medina, and Cuyahoga Counties... but I will stay on the conservative side in fears of busting too high.

Severe Weather Outbreak Underway

As expected, there has been a significant development of storms in the last few hours. Much of Western Ohio and Indiana are now under a Tornado watch until late this evening. As of right now (3PM), the warm front from a 1000mb surface low in north/central IN is located across the Route 6 corridor. As a result, a strong temperature gradient exists, with Toledo in the mid 50s with a light northerly breeze, while Findlay is in the middle sixties with a strong southely breeze. Although cloud cover has kept intability down, severe storms have sufficient fuel with a 90kt wind at 500mb, this is an incredible situation. Even winds at 925mb are at 50kts in NWOH!

As I type, storms in Indiana and extreme NWOH are moving NW at around 50-60mph. This direction has limited easteward movement of these storms in the last hour or two. However, slow movement east is expected as the cold front pushes east later this afternoon. The SPC has kept the 10% hatched tornado probs in areas that have had more instability develop. A large area of 50kt 0-1km shear will be plenty enough to aid for potentially strong tornadoes today.

This is a serious situation. If you are in the path of these storms, take cover immediately. The potential for tornadoes, potentially strong, exists. The greatest potential for tornadoes is a triangle from Findlay, OH to Colubmus, to Indianapolis, IN.

Slight Risk for Severe Storms Today

The SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms in much of Ohio today. This is largely due to upper level dynamics, rather than instability like we see during the spring and summer months. A low pressure system will move across Michigan this afternoon, with a cold front extending through IL/IN. Storms will initiate just ahead of the cold front, which will move east at a fast pace. The main threat will be damaging winds, but tornadoes are definitely a possibility due to strong dynamics aloft. The SPC has recently upgraded to a high end slight risk- and depending on how the afternoon evolves, an upgrade to a moderate risk of storms is possible in later updates, probably in a triangle from Indy to Lima to Columbus.

The most impressive thing about today is the upper level winds. Winds at 500mb are approximately 60-90kts, which will lead to an incredible amount of shear. What's also extremely impressive thing about this event is the 190kt jet streak over northern Michigan. That is not very typical for a mid-November storm, so today could be a very unusual day. Storm motion will likely be WNW at around 60mph, so be alert for ever changing conditions in your area. Today has the potential to be somewhat similar to November 2002, which had a strong tornadoes across the Great Lakes area. While the size of that outbreak was much larger, the potential for a few strong tornadoes is present today.

Stay tuned to the SPC, NWS, and The Ohio/Ontario weather blog for more updates during the day

Powerful Storm to Affect Great Lakes

A powerful storm system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region this week. A low pressure system will develop in the southeast United States and move northeast, while strengthening rapidly. The NAM and GFS for the "peak" of the storm are shown below:

As you can tell, this is a very strong system (Below 985mb). Now, as much as I hate to speculate, but if we were to see a storm track like that during winter, this would be a huge snow producer. Unfortunately for the winter lovers, this is still October, and this will all be rain. Surface temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 40s for Northern OH, Southern MI and Ontario, so a cold rain is likely for more than 2 days. With a solid moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, this storm will produce copious amounts of rainfall across the area. Current model forecasts and the HPC suggest a potential for up to 4-5" of rain, especially in SEMI and NWOH. Depending on the amount of moisture and low pressure track, this could change considerably, but I'm confident the majority of the forecast region will receive more than 2" of rain from this system.

Not only will this system produce heavy rain, but high winds are also a bit of a concern. Surface winds are expecting to be around 20-30mph, with higher gusts. Winds just above the surface are at about 50mph, so winds that make it down to the surface will be quite strong.

Towards the end of the storm, I would not be surprised if there were some localized reports of snow/sleet/graupel, although the coldest upper level temperatures occur during the day. Still, temperatures columns are not favorable for any persistent snowfall or accumulations.

Looking ahead, it appears we will be fairly active over the next couple weeks, but nothing too significant. Stay tuned for updates on this storm and others.

Long Range Look

With beautiful weather going on currently, I want to take a look at what's going on in the long range. Currently the GFS and ECMWF show a weak but large system moving into the southern Great Lakes region by Wednesday afternoon, with light rain and cooler temperatures. Rainfall amounts will most likely stay below 1/2", with higher amounts possible in Southern Ontario. Most of the rain should be out of  Ohio/Michigan by Friday afternoon, while rain lasts until Friday night in Ontario, especially futher north towards Toronto. This low pressure system will also bring some cooler temperatures to the region, with temperatures staying below the low 60s (below 17C).

These cool temperatures look to persist during the rest of the weekend into next week. According to the models, this isn't the big story.

The big system to watch would be about 8 days from now (Monday-Tuesday timeframe). Both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong system developing in the Ohio Valley and tracking just east of Toronto. Below are a few images from the GFS:

Now, this is what you would expect to be a classic snowstorm for most of northern Ohio, eastern Michigan, and southern Ontario. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this is still October. But to see a storm like this early in the season is fairly promising. What's interesting is that if you were to only look at 850mb Temps/Precip/SLP, you would expect this to be a snowstorm. 850mb temperatures are below freezing, but the surface is well too warm for snow. If this continutes to be shown on the models, then expect a cold rain and a lot of rain, but just like the winter season, storms in this range are fairly unpredictable. It's always a cool sight to see this early in the season, but it won't be a snowmaker here. This is just the first of many storms to watch this fall and into the winter.

Even if this storm does not end up nearly as strong as models are currently showing, the telleconnections support at least a quick period of below average temperatures with the deep trough coming out of Canada. I like the idea of a brief spell of below average temperatures to end the month, although I believe it will warm back up starting November.

Winter 2011-2012 Outlook

Overview

After a Strong La Nina last winter, it’s likely we will re-enter the La Nina threshold again this winter, but the La Nina won’t nearly be as strong as last year. After a rapid warming period this past spring, the La Nina has struggled to gain any strength over the summer. Currently, we have a MJO wave forecasted to move across the West Pacific (Phase 6/7), which is not typical of a La Nina. This is usually observed during El Nino events, such as 2009-2010. Current cooling continues at a very slow pace, which I expect to continue for several weeks as we head into winter. Some strengthening is also likely during November/December, before a peak around early January.

            

A look at the global pattern shows a bit of a mixed situation. A well defined –PDO is evident in the Pacific, but the GLAAM has risen into positive territory over the past couple weeks, along with the GWO in phase 6. As mentioned earlier, a robust MJO wave is currently moving into phase 6 as well. Current SST anomalies remain weak across the equatorial Pacific, with subsurface SSTs slowly diminishing over the past month. The coldest SST anomalies are located in the East Central ENSO Region. This suggests that any La Nina stronger than moderate territory is unlikely to develop for this winter.

So: What does this really mean?

The answer: A lot. I’m forecasting a weak La Nina to develop this year, which is shown by almost all seasonal forecasting models (see ECMWF, CFSv2 Below). A typical La Nina favors areas west of the I-95 corridor (which has seen the brunt of the last 2 winters). The QBO plays an interesting role this year. With a 50mb positive, 30mb slightly negative, and building negative anomalies at 10mb, the QBO will be very interesting to watch. What happens during the winter could greatly affect the overall winter pattern, so it’s worth watching closely during the next six to eight weeks. That being said, here’s my ENSO forecast month by month:

            Let’s take a look at a typical east/central based La Nina, going back approximately 100 years:

East-based to basin wide La Ninas have below normal temperatures extending from the Pacific Northwest across the Plains, Midwest, parts of the Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast United States. Slightly above normal temperatures are located in the southeast United States, due to a ridge commonly referred to as the “Southeast Ridge”, which almost always shows up during a La Nina episode. The strength and location of the ridge can greatly affect storm tracks, along with temperature gradients, especially in the Northeast.

Looking at previous La Ninas, specifically my analogs, you get this end result:

There’s a deep trough over the West Central U.S., with a –NAO signature in Greenland (Positive 500mb Heights). This image also appears to be “missing” something a typical Nina contains- the ridge in the southeast. It is there- but very weak. This keeps temperatures down slightly, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. However, with a ridge still there, this will “push” the storm track west of the coast, especially with the mean trough located towards the Plains. This suggests an active track through the southern plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley this year.

Analogs

This winter may end up being better than last winter in the Ohio/Michigan/Southern Ontario area. Here is my analog list for this winter:

·         1950-51

·         1964-65

·         1966-67

·         1967-68

·         1970-71

·         1973-74

·         1984-85

·         2007-2008

·         2008-2009

Of those nine analogs, eight featured above average snowfall for Toledo, Ohio. This included 5 winters of over 45” (1950, 1964, 1967, 2007, 2008). Of the 9 total analogs used, two had distinctly strong blocking in the previous two winters (’66-67, ’70-71), and only two did not have a –AO during the winter (’07-08, 08-09). However, the strength of the –AO was much weaker during my analog years then in winters preceding them. This is why I expect a weak  to neutral –AO during the winter. While a –AO favors a trough position favoring the east coast, a neutral to slightly positive AO is more favorable for the Midwest (as long as other telleconnections are also supportive). I expect this occur fairly often during this winter, with a very active storm track through the eastern third of the country. Frequent Colorado lows, panhandle hooks, gulf lows will be the primary storm tracks, especially during December, and again in February and March.

If we see a continuation of an active MJO in the West Pacific (Phase 6-7), we could see a more active Subtropical Jet (STJ) during the winter, after a “non-existent” STJ last winter. Even with a northern stream dominated winter like last year, you can still have an active pattern, but the STJ and “Pineapple Express” will only add more fuel to the fire. I don’t think that the STJ will be too active- which is why I have my precipitation maps looking like they do.

The Forecast

So, this is probably the reason you clicked on this anyways: the actual forecast. I’m sure most of you will skip through this text and look at the maps, and then may go back and actually read. If you do read this before you look at the “pretty” maps, then kudos to you.

Using the analogs mentioned above, this is the DJF composite you are left with:

And Precip:

Looking at these maps, you could not print out a better looking composite for the Great Lakes. As you can tell, the tendency is for below average temperatures and above average precipitation, especially centered from STL to Chicago, extending towards the Appalachains.

This is similar to what I expect during the this winter. Snowfall will also be above average in the Great Lakes, with below average snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic coast and south. Precipitation will be well above average in the Pacific Northwest this winter, with slightly below average precipitation in Oregon/No. Californina, with below average precipitation across the Arizona/New Mexico/Texas, along with slightly below average precipitation in the gulf states.

Individual Months:

November: Winter does not officially begin until Dec. 1^st, but I expect that late November will feel more like winter than fall. My analogs show a cold eastern US for November, and some early season snowfalls (November ’66 anyone?) wouldn’t be surprising. I believe winter starts after the 15^th, and continues into December. Temperature Forecast:

Precipitation Forecast:

December: I’m a bit skeptical about this month in general. I do think early December will be cool, but I think a brief warm up towards the middle of December is possible. Although temperatures end up near average, along with above average precipitation, I don’t think anybody east of Grand Rapids gets anything higher than slightly above average snowfall. However, one big storm could ruin that forecast, and if we do get a big storm during one of the active periods of the month, above average snow is likely across the Great Lakes. I do believe that after Christmas, most of the Great Lakes and Plains are back to below average temperatures, while the south and parts of the I-95 corridor stay a bit above normal. Temperatures:

Precipitation:

January: This is probably the toughest call on any month this winter. While the majority of winter forecasts I’ve seen call for a brutal month of cold and snow, again, I’m skeptical that this will occur. It’s not that I don’t think we’ll have below average temperatures for almost all of the country (especially central/west U.S.), I don’t think it will be nearly as cold as many are predicting. I do feel that late January into February will be an active period; see February’s discussion for that.

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

February: This is where I think the best part of winter will be. If you live in Michigan or Ohio you probably have fond memories of February ’08 (or if you live in D.C. or Philly, not so much), and something similar is possible again this winter. This is my “big” month in my forecast, and this is the time that could make or break the winter, especially west of the Appalachians. The temperature/precip composites for my top 9 analogs are suggesting a cold/snowy Midwest, and I’m not going to doubt it. Even in strong La Ninas (see last year), February and March can end up showing impressive snow totals in the Great Lakes Region. With a slightly more active STJ, along with a pretty tight thermal gradient, there could be some big storms during this period. Will we see another record setting February in the Midwest/Great Lakes? It’s definitely possible.  

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

March: Another toss-up here. My analogs are pretty much split down the middle, some extreme anomalies showing up. I don’t want to say anything about this month right now, because there are too many questions to answer at this time. When I release an updated outlook sometime in late October or early November, I should have more details on this month. For the time being, I won’t have any maps for this month.

Summary:

The active winters will continue in the eastern third of the country. Extreme cold, snowstorms, and even the possibility of ice storms in parts of the Mid Atlantic/Ohio Valley will be widespread for the majority of winter. If you didn’t get a great winter last year, this may be your year. We start off winter cold and stormy, then have a bit of a break in December. January starts off a bit slow, but quickly becomes more active, especially in the later portion of the month. February could be the heart of the winter, with cold and snowy conditions likely across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An active storm track will stay further west of last year’s, which isn’t good for the I-95 corridor to hear. With winter about 10-12 weeks away, it’s time to get ready for a very exciting winter!

Video:

Having technology troubles. Will be ready tomorrow!

Excessive Heat Likely Next Week

Although it has been almost a month since my last post, I've still been following the weather closely. I did not post about the moderate risk day in Ohio, mainly due to the fact that I had no access to a computer during that stretch. Although I've been slowly working on my Fall/Winter outlooks, I felt that this upcoming situation is going to be more important. We are looking at a stretch of of widespread 90-100*F days, lasting until near the end of the month.  This is largely due to this:

This 594dm ridge over the central U.S. will pump in very hot, moist air, with dew points reaching the low to mid 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will cause heat indices of 105 and greater for several days. There will also be strong instability in place, which could create slow moving thunderstorms, which could be severe. The SPC has already placed Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for Monday. The main threats would be large hail and damaging winds, with a very low tornado risk. 

This heat won't just be short lived. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a 80% chance or greater of above average temperatures, for both the 6-10 Day, and 8-14 day outlooks:

There does not appear to be any relief from the heat in the next 2-3 weeks, and July will likely be one of the warmest on records for Toledo, Columbus, and Cleveland.

Stay tuned for any updates regarding this and any other significant weather.

3 Consecutive Days of Severe Thunderstorms Possible

It appears are first big week for severe storms is coming up tomorrow through Wednesday.  A powerful summer storm will move across the Plains into the Midwest tomorrow, bringing a 4 day period (Today, but not here) of severe storms with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and parts of Southern Ontario. As the warm front clears parts of southern Ohio today, there will be a slight chance for some isolated severe storms today, but it does not appear that it will be anything major.

Tomorrow could be an interesting day, with the warm front reaching the Ohio/Michigan border by the early afternoon.  Shear should be quite high tomorrow, supporting storm organization, and some scattered storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be likely.  An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Tuesday, and Wednesday also have a lot of potential, but I'll cover those later tonight

Weather for the Week

After an absolutely gorgeous past 4 days, the weather is expected to get rainier over the next few days.  Although temperatures should remain cool, showers and thunderstorms are expected from Wednesday to Friday.  Showers and storms should develop and move east-northeast into  Northwest Ohio by late afternoon tomorrow.  These storms are not expected to be severe.  However, some isolated severe weather is possible further south towards Dayton, Columbus, and Cincinnati, but the overall potential looks very limited.  Rain should move into Southern Michigan and eventually weaken in Ontario on Thursday, while isolated storms will move through Ohio during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts should range from 1/4" to 3/4" in Ohio, with less in extreme southern Ontario.  Less than a tenth of an inch (2-3mm) of rain is currently expected in the Greater Toronto Area.

Temperatures will generally range in the low to mid 70s (21-27C), but rain could keep local areas from warming up as much.

One Year Anniversary of the Millbury EF-4 Tornado

A year ago today, a small community was left devastated by the first EF-4 tornado since Van Wert in 2002, and the first in Wood County since 1953. During the middle of the night, a tornado ripped through Lake High School and moved into Millbury, killing 7 along the way. The next morning, the full extent of the damage was finally known, and the images of that day still haunt me.

This event has stuck with me every time I look at the computer models while making a forecast. I always have wondered if there was anything else myself, the National Weather Service, and Local Media outlets could have done to help prevent this. It was an impossible question to answer. I had been standing about 400 feet from where the tornado roared through Millbury 12 hours before it hit. When I saw the devastation on TV- I kept thinking that if had hit earlier that day, I might not be here writing this today.

That morning, you could tell something was different. It was hard to desrcibe- but the humidity felt more oppressive, and everything was silent. No birds chirping, nothing. Only the sound of a soccer game on a field that was narrowly missed by the tornado later that day. It didn't seem that weird at the time though- it was cloudy, and it even rained a bit in the early afternoon. Normally big severe weather days have a very sunny sky, with instability skyrocketing.

This wasn't the case on June 5th, where wind shear and dynamics were largely responsible for the tornadoes in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio that day. Over 50kts of Effective Shear and Effective SRH over 500m2/s2 was absolutely stunning to see so late in the day. Coupled with some minor instability from some clearing late in the day, it was a setup that had the potential to produce tornadoes- some violent. The SPC issued a Tornado Watch at 1010PM, and the first tornado report occurred at 1038 that night. The Millbury tornado hit 70 minutes later.

This was by far the worst tornado outbreak in the last decade for Northwest Ohio, and I hope I never see a similar setup here again. This will be a day I will always remember- and I hope anyone who reads this will too. Keep those who were affected by this tornado outbreak, and all the tornadoes this year in your thoughts and prayers.