New Pattern to Emerge

After 2 months of consistent winter weather in the area, winter has finally ended. The upcoming pattern for next week supports a much warmer pattern than what we’ve seen dominating the last few weeks.

This should be the warm-up that completely ends winter until next November. Here’s what we have going on with teleconnections. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation on the left, Pacific-North American (PNA) on the right.

As you can see, the GEFS is showing a transition to a +NAO, and –PNA developing by mid to late next week. This would favor a trough in the western U.S., with a ridge in the eastern U.S., which would lead to warmer temperatures.

The GEFS shows the MJO moving into phase 6/7/8 in the next two weeks. When you look at 500mb composites taken from Raleighwx (Allan Huffman’s weather site), it correlates well with the NAO/PNA forecasts, of a ridge over the eastern U.S. This also is shown on the ECMWF, with temperatures skyrocketing by the Day 7 time period.

This warm-up is all tied to the storm before it, which will be a real rainmaker for someone and a severe weather threat for others. Where the low eventually does track will be crucial. Currently the ECMWF has this storm tracking from Chicago into southern Ontario, with severe weather possible as far north as the Ohio/Michigan border. South of the warm front will be a very moist, extremely sheared environment, which would indicate a good potential for severe weather. The SPC also outlined a general area for their Day 5 outlook, including parts of Ohio, and I think this has potential to be another Moderate Risk area day. All of the Great Lakes have a threat for flooding, with the amount of rain currently being forecasted by the ECMWF/GFS.

This is only the beginning of a very active spring, so keep checking back for updates.