Lake Effect Snow Outbreak

As I've mentioned a few times in the chat to the right of this post, I am not used to forecasting Lake Effect snow, especially when these high amounts are likely. However, I will at least attempt to put up a snow map for this, despite the potential for it to bust horribly.


NORTHWEST OHIO:
Light snow has fallen in several places, with Bowling Green already closing in on an inch due to a very heavy snow band earlier this evening. However, most places have about 1/2" of snow already. (3/4" here).
As winds are forecasted to turn WNW during the early morning hours on Tuesday, this will lead to a few bands from Lake Michigan reaching NWOH by early morning:

These bands will be able to produce light snowfall accumulations in NWOH, where I expect 1-3" of snowfall by late tomorrow evening. Lake Effect Snow is uncommon here, and it's interesting to see how bullish some models are with total snowfall here. However, as wind direction turns more NW during the evening, these bands will diminish and slowly sink south and west of the area, which will conclude the event. With windy conditions and cold, this could make roads snow-covered and dangerous for the area.

NORTHERN & NORTHEAST OHIO:
This will be where the main show is for this lake effect. I'm still learning details with LES stuff, but I can already tell the big signs here. WNW/NW flow, boundry layer RH skyrocketing, -18C 850s, and plenty of lake instability (Lake temps are 4C). That should be enough for a significant LES outbreak, but because of strong winds, the main snows will be just south of the lakeshore. However, if winds are not as strong as forecasted, snow totals could be higher in those areas (Lorain, Avon Lake, Cleveland). Expecting 3-6" there, but could be more, even approaching 8, 9 or even 10" if a heavy band could stall for a few hours. Could see some thundersnow in some bands too, given the amount of instability.

Here's my map for the storm (again, first time LES forecasting):

AGAIN: I am concerned that there will be higher totals, especially in Lorain, Medina, and Cuyahoga Counties... but I will stay on the conservative side in fears of busting too high.