Snow Potential Tonight

As the last borderline snow storm was unsuccessful here, we have another shot at potentially heavy accumulations of snow tonight for parts of NWOH and SEMI. Snow has already changed over from rain in most of lower Michigan, as colder temperatures work their way into the storm. Although the RUC/Rapid Refresh are not nearly as supportive, the HRRR shows the potential for a few inches of accumulation-potentially even more than that as snow changes over from rain late this evening.


Copious amounts of moisture are streaming in from the southern Ohio Valley, and precipitation is expected to stay in the area through the overnight hours. This rain will potentially turn to snow in Northwest Ohio this afternoon, even as early as 4:30-5:30 PM. This leaves heavy precipitation, likely some of it snow- in the area for several hours, leading to potential accumulations.


Again, this is another tough situation to forecast, as even during the storm, models have no handle on what's really going on. Due to the HRRR's continued consistency for this event, I will side for this for now. I currently expect a general 2-4" for most of NWOH and SEMI, although I could see those amounts completely busting. However, I think it is possible that someone receives over 5" in a localized area, but I don't expect that to be common.


Whatever happens, stay cautious on roadways this evening and be prepared for sudden changes in the weather. This is a very weird storm that could go either way. If we get snow, enjoy it. If not, don't be upset that we didn't. Until early this afternoon, nothing suggested a potential for any snow around here, and to see such a dramatic change is extremlely cool to see. Anyways, as Joe Bastardi says, "Enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you got"

A Few Things

This post was originally going to be drawn out into two or three separate parts, but I'm going to  bunch them together into one large post.

First, I would like to recap what happened earlier this week. My forecast was, in my opinion busted. Some people say that forecasting shouldn't be personal, but for me, it is. That forecast was not a good one, and I realize that. There are two main parts to why my forecast failed: my own personal errors, and errors within the computer models themselves.

I had been watching the computer models the entire week, and was very surprised to see a eastern trend on the models. This storm was going to be well west of the area for anything signifcant- or so I thought. I've rarely seen a storm trend east on computer models (typically it's a NW trend)- but this was a very complex storm system. It started with a powerful, strong Upper Level Low, which tracked into the eastern Lakes. A 1000mb low followed on the north side. However, I almost would consider it a double barrel low, due to the way the isobars looked. There appeared to be on center over western Lake Erie (and there was one on some  of the RUC runs), and one further east over Lake Ontario. Now, this should have been a red flag, but I did not recognize it. This was where I looked at computer models- which almost all the hi-res models showed the deformation band stalling before it reached I-75. This is why I forecasted 2-4" for areas west of I-75. However, the deformation band actually got to the last column of counties in NWOH, which is why areas like Bryan, Defiance, Ft. Wayne, etc. got the projected 2-4", rather than those further east.

However, there were some bright spots in the forecast. I did recognize that there would be a large gradient over a few counties. I also had mentioned someone in NE IN would get some double digit totals in, and generally got the corridor of the heaviest snow (although again, further east). This again, can be attributed to the actual position of the surface low and the upper level low and how the models handed the situation. I can't make promises, but I hope that the next forecast becomes a bit easier to predict.

This does not appear to be the case, as the next storm appears to be developing within the next 5 days. The global models are all over the place again, and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Another complex pattern, with a shortwave now over the SW United States, is supposed to eject from a basically stationary trough early next week. This storm is expected to develop along a strong baroclinic zone, and head generally northeast:

Taking a look at global models, the NAM remains the most amplified, and furthest west, resulting in a heavy snow band from Lafayette, IN to extreme NWOH. However, it also is the most lacking on cool air, especially in Ohio. This results in a very wet snow or rain/snow mix for most areas, although a few inches would likely accumulate. The GFS, on the other hand, is much more progressive with this system, showing only a very weak low pressure system. This storm isn't expected to be very strong- because of a positive tilt 500mb trough, GFS is still significantly weaker with the storm- ending with a colder, less snowy solution. The ECMWF is in the middle of these two solution, showing a decent storm north of a line of Defiance to Bowling Green. The UKMET and GEM both develop this storm- but over 36 hours later.

Since it is early in the season, temperatures will be marginal again, leading to another tough forecast. However, I've gotten the rust shaken off me, and I'm back in full forecasting model now. It's officially winter, folks!

Long Range Look

With beautiful weather going on currently, I want to take a look at what's going on in the long range. Currently the GFS and ECMWF show a weak but large system moving into the southern Great Lakes region by Wednesday afternoon, with light rain and cooler temperatures. Rainfall amounts will most likely stay below 1/2", with higher amounts possible in Southern Ontario. Most of the rain should be out of  Ohio/Michigan by Friday afternoon, while rain lasts until Friday night in Ontario, especially futher north towards Toronto. This low pressure system will also bring some cooler temperatures to the region, with temperatures staying below the low 60s (below 17C).

These cool temperatures look to persist during the rest of the weekend into next week. According to the models, this isn't the big story.

The big system to watch would be about 8 days from now (Monday-Tuesday timeframe). Both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong system developing in the Ohio Valley and tracking just east of Toronto. Below are a few images from the GFS:

Now, this is what you would expect to be a classic snowstorm for most of northern Ohio, eastern Michigan, and southern Ontario. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this is still October. But to see a storm like this early in the season is fairly promising. What's interesting is that if you were to only look at 850mb Temps/Precip/SLP, you would expect this to be a snowstorm. 850mb temperatures are below freezing, but the surface is well too warm for snow. If this continutes to be shown on the models, then expect a cold rain and a lot of rain, but just like the winter season, storms in this range are fairly unpredictable. It's always a cool sight to see this early in the season, but it won't be a snowmaker here. This is just the first of many storms to watch this fall and into the winter.

Even if this storm does not end up nearly as strong as models are currently showing, the telleconnections support at least a quick period of below average temperatures with the deep trough coming out of Canada. I like the idea of a brief spell of below average temperatures to end the month, although I believe it will warm back up starting November.

My Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

Winter 2010-2011 Forecast

As fall starts to peak and winter starts to approach, it’s time for many forecasters to issue a final winter outlook. At this time we are currently already in a moderate to borderline strong La Nina. This La Nina should peak by November and slowly weaken by the heart of winter. This current Nina coupled with a very +SOI, -GLAAM, and –PDO should create very interesting weather conditions across the U.S. and Canada. Before I get into the forecast, let’s see what is going on with the current La Nina.

With MEI bimonthly values of -1.9, the La Nina is currently the lowest on record at this point in time. This makes we want to believe that it will run out of steam by winter, with a weakening La Nina as winter starts. Currently our La Nina is Basin-Wide, but it appears it is trying to transition more to an east based La Nina. Current SST anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific reach -2.0 in the easternmost regions (Region 1.2 and 3), with higher anomalies in the more western regions. Although this may be temporary, many of the Long Range forecast models keep the La Nina central to east based, which may save the winter for parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley regions.

As of late we have seen a complete switch in the GWO/GLAAM/MJO phases compared to where we were for the majority of this season. We just saw a strong MJO wave with a move to Phase 6 over the last week or so… and the GWO is starting to propagate towards Phase 8. The GLAAM, which remained positive for almost the entire summer, has also suddenly switched back positive. However, this is should be fairly short lived, and I expect the GLAAM to be fairly negative throughout winter, with a “lag effect”- where the overall GLAAM remains negative for a few months after the La Nina peaks (Which I expect by November). This is based mostly on a hunch—but with such a strong La Nina, the GLAAM/GWO/MJO seem to be well coupled with the ENSO phase. The SOI is extremely positive, with some of the highest Monthly SOI values recorded in history. There is some of a correlation with high SOI years with a cooler than average North/Northeast compared to a typical Nina during this type of event, and I believe this may also be the case again this year.

The QBO also has taken a switch positive since the spring… coming off a long –QBO regime. A +QBO features positive Zonal Wind anomalies from 30mb-50mb (Although some places use up to 70mb, etc.) along the equator. As you can see in the image below, positive anomalies are starting to develop in the QBO regions, although it isn’t greatly positive yet. A +QBO in the winter tends to give a stronger Polar Vortex, which is harder to displace and cause those record breaking –AO values like last year. However, I still expect the northern 1/3 of the CONUS and Canada to be slightly cooler than average to very cold in the Northern Plains and PNW. +QBO’s aren’t typically associated with La Ninas, but the winters of ’71-72, ’73-74, ’75-76, did.

The 70s are gaining my interest, as they occurred during a –PDO phase just like we are starting now, although they occurred in a –AMO phase. With so many variables different about each ENSO event, I try to stay fairly far away from using analogues too heavily, although you could make an argument to support the use of them. As of now my primary analogues are ’73-74 and ’07-08. ’73-74 is my top one as it came off a strong El Nino… and had a -1.9C peak off the MEI. As I mentioned earlier, the current MEI value is already -1.99… .24*C lower than ’73… but it’s one of the closer fits that I could find. ’07-08 came off a moderate La Nina (+1.3C on the MEI scale) and progressed into a Moderate La Ninas. A –PDO/+AMO regime favors a –NAO pattern, but with a strong La Nina a Southeast Ridge is imminent this Winter. However, I feel that any arctic outbreaks that do make it to the northern U.S. should be very intense, and a storm or two during this timeframe could lead to a large snowstorm for many people.

Above is the image of my top 3 analogues (I also threw in 1964-1965 although it’s not my favorite analogue). I was also tempted to add 1903-1904 as an analogue but I can’t get accurate data as far as QBO/PDO/AMO go… but adding that does give a somewhat cooler average look, which I will mention later on. As you can see it will pretty much go along with my thoughts: Cold north, warm south and east. The Great Lakes is right on the edge of where the cold and warm collide-leading to several events that could create a tight rain/snow line, also giving the area many ice storms (although each storm should have a different area affected). This winter will have very steep total snow gradients highly affected by each storm. I also think that this winter will be slightly cooler than the analogues above, although it’s more of a hunch than anything else. Some strong blocking periods with a –NAO/-AO will be possible this winter, leading to some brutal cold snaps, as I mentioned previously.

Precipitation Anomalies should be fairly positive as indicated by my top 3 analogues above. Both rainfall and snowfall should be above normal, so long-lived snowpacks could be less frequent due to some warm-ups (Especially in January, where the Southeast Ridge strengthens), but snowfall should still end up above average. This does not mean a record breaking season like last year was for the Mid-Atlantic states, but respectable totals should be seen across the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Plains regions. Elsewhere across the south precipitation and snowfall should be below average, with some droughts possible in the deep South.

With Nino Regions 1.2 and 3 continuing to strengthen despite this, I’m favoring an East Based La Nina, with its’ peak coming relatively soon, at least a few weeks before the start of the Winter Season. However, we will still feel the affects of the Southeast Ridge, and the worst of this should happen in January, with February and March to a lesser extent. I feel like The last few weeks of February into early March could really add on to snow totals, especially in the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast regions. Take a look at this image below:

Look at how cold it is for much of the Northern U.S. in these 4 years (All Moderate-Strong La Ninas) in February and March. With Precip. Anomalies looking like this:

It’s hard to not have above average snow in the Great Lakes and Midwest. I’m leaning towards one of the snowier 4 week periods recorded for the last half of February into the first half of March. Even if you take out 1903-1904 the results are very similar… so it supports my thinking of a Cold/Snowy end to winter.

The Forecast:

I’ve explained my reasoning very thoroughly above, and it’s time to get into the actually forecast.

The Winter should really get kicking by the second half of November… with cooler than average temperatures extending into the Northern US for much of November into Mid December. A big storm or two for the Midwest is possible during this timeframe, and it could be quite snowy for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Somewhere after the Christmas timeframe I think the SE Ridge starts to develop and hold strong across the southeast, making a real struggle against cold and warm air in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. Panhandle Hooks and “Bowling Ball” systems that track through the Eastern US should be the predominant storm track along with Alberta Clippers—which can produce several small accumulations that add up quickly. Most of the Southeast and Eastern Coast should end up 1-3 degrees above average while the Interior Northeast, Great Lakes, and Midwest end up at average or slightly below average. Precipitation should be above normal in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and PNW with average to below average precip. in the southern half of the country, along with the East Coast.

February should have the Ridge Collapsing in the east, leading to colder than average temperatures to take a hold of the Midwest and Great Lakes, along with the Ohio Valley and Northeast. This month should be one of the colder months along with March, and above average precipitation and snowfall is likely for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions. March should also be fairly similar to February, but after the first 15 days or so the pattern should slowly start to break down.

Winter Temperature Outlook:

Winter Precipitation Outlook:
Winter Snowfall Outlook:
Winter Snowfall Outlook:

This should be an entertaining winter for many of the folks that were disappointed by last year’s winter.