Powerful Storm to Affect Great Lakes

A powerful storm system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region this week. A low pressure system will develop in the southeast United States and move northeast, while strengthening rapidly. The NAM and GFS for the "peak" of the storm are shown below:

As you can tell, this is a very strong system (Below 985mb). Now, as much as I hate to speculate, but if we were to see a storm track like that during winter, this would be a huge snow producer. Unfortunately for the winter lovers, this is still October, and this will all be rain. Surface temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 40s for Northern OH, Southern MI and Ontario, so a cold rain is likely for more than 2 days. With a solid moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, this storm will produce copious amounts of rainfall across the area. Current model forecasts and the HPC suggest a potential for up to 4-5" of rain, especially in SEMI and NWOH. Depending on the amount of moisture and low pressure track, this could change considerably, but I'm confident the majority of the forecast region will receive more than 2" of rain from this system.

Not only will this system produce heavy rain, but high winds are also a bit of a concern. Surface winds are expecting to be around 20-30mph, with higher gusts. Winds just above the surface are at about 50mph, so winds that make it down to the surface will be quite strong.

Towards the end of the storm, I would not be surprised if there were some localized reports of snow/sleet/graupel, although the coldest upper level temperatures occur during the day. Still, temperatures columns are not favorable for any persistent snowfall or accumulations.

Looking ahead, it appears we will be fairly active over the next couple weeks, but nothing too significant. Stay tuned for updates on this storm and others.