There are a few things that will keep this severe event limited. A low amount of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), and very little instability. Timing will also be a factor in western Ohio, because the cold front which will trigger any storms will be moving through the area by 1PM. Further east, a better chance of destabilization is possible, but again, this cold front will be moving too quickly, preventing a major outbreak of severe storms.
However, a threat of scattered severe storms does exist, because of a high shear, high helicity atmosphere. Sfc.-500mb Shear will be an excess of 60kts, which is sufficient for severe storms. When you look at Sfc-500mb Crossovers and Hodographs for Central Ohio, there's not much "turning", so a tornado threat is fairly low, probably a very small area of 5% risk tomorrow. 0-3km helicity will be about 400-500m2/s-2 along the front, which will be sufficient for thunderstorms.
The main threat will be from hail and damaging winds from any severe storms that do develop during the early afternoon. Depending on how much morning convection there is, it is possible that this will limit destabilization entirely, which will keep the severe threat limited to I-70 south. Further south into Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama, there is a greater chance of severe storms due to a much more unstable airmass.
Before storms do arrive tomorrow, temperatures could approach the upper 60s and lower 70s, with dewpoints approaching, if not exceeding 60. I'm supposed to be attending a skywarn training session tomorrow, so I'm not sure if I will be able to get to the blog tomorrow, other than in the morning hours. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction centers for watches and warnings to be issued throughout the day tomorrow.
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