What Happened To December?

Wonder why I haven't had much to post about this December? If you don't, just look out your window. See any snow? Exactly.

This December has been brutal for many in the region, especially southern Ontario. However, there has been a lone bright spot in this abysmal start to winter: NWOH and SEMI, along with parts of Northern Indiana. Here, snowfall is only a tad bit below average (about 1" below according to my stats here and TOL's averages). Several of these events were very borderline, rain to snow or snow to rain events, so people in this area have been lucky to see anything at all. Cleveland picked up a heavy snow on Saturday due to a very small area of convergence, which spawned heave Lake Effect Snow, and eventually Lake Enhanced snow as the clipper moved through.

So what is causing this?

Most of this has been driven by the stratosphere. Due to lingering effects left from the +QBO (especially below 50mb), blocking (-AO) has been hard to come by for a while. Many people, including myself, expected there to be at least weak blocking as the month progressed, but that has not been the case. The Polar Vortex refuses to weaken or split, keeping cold air north of the Polar Jet. However, there are some signs for the pattern to become more favorable, but later into January at the earliest. This is why I've had February as the coldest month of the year, but I did not expect December and January to be so warm.

For now, we'll have to live with the cards we've been dealt. Sometimes, even in a bad pattern overall, a nice storm or two can happen. Will this be the case for the next couple weeks? I don't have the answer to that question, and I doubt anyone does. However, I could see us scraping along with a inch or two every once in a while, just to remind us what winter is supposed to look like.

There is a storm right around the 23rd that I've mentioned once or twice, but low level warmth is a killer right now. GFS looks a little better, but snow chances remain very marginal once again. Will anyone near here see a white Christmas? I wouldn't like those chances. But a Christmas miracle is always worth a shot.