Light Snow Tomorrow

Not much to say here. A clipper system will drop through Michigan and Ontario, with a cold front trailing. Enough convergence to get a brief, heavy snow during the morning and early afternoon time. .5-2", at most 3" will fall. Snow will be quick to fall, and quick to accumulate, which could lead to some slick roads very quickly. This will set the stage for the bigger event Friday night into Saturday, which I will post about tomorrow morning and evening.

Tomorrow, snow will start right before rush hour, and snow will strengthen throughout rush hour traffic and the rest of the morning. Generally looking at less than an inch before 11AM, with another .5-1.5" of snow possible in the afternoon as the snow slowly winds down. Again, this isn't a huge snow producer, but just a run of the mill clipper system. Be careful as this will be quick hitting and could cause travel issues, especially given the timing.

Snow Potential Tonight

As the last borderline snow storm was unsuccessful here, we have another shot at potentially heavy accumulations of snow tonight for parts of NWOH and SEMI. Snow has already changed over from rain in most of lower Michigan, as colder temperatures work their way into the storm. Although the RUC/Rapid Refresh are not nearly as supportive, the HRRR shows the potential for a few inches of accumulation-potentially even more than that as snow changes over from rain late this evening.


Copious amounts of moisture are streaming in from the southern Ohio Valley, and precipitation is expected to stay in the area through the overnight hours. This rain will potentially turn to snow in Northwest Ohio this afternoon, even as early as 4:30-5:30 PM. This leaves heavy precipitation, likely some of it snow- in the area for several hours, leading to potential accumulations.


Again, this is another tough situation to forecast, as even during the storm, models have no handle on what's really going on. Due to the HRRR's continued consistency for this event, I will side for this for now. I currently expect a general 2-4" for most of NWOH and SEMI, although I could see those amounts completely busting. However, I think it is possible that someone receives over 5" in a localized area, but I don't expect that to be common.


Whatever happens, stay cautious on roadways this evening and be prepared for sudden changes in the weather. This is a very weird storm that could go either way. If we get snow, enjoy it. If not, don't be upset that we didn't. Until early this afternoon, nothing suggested a potential for any snow around here, and to see such a dramatic change is extremlely cool to see. Anyways, as Joe Bastardi says, "Enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you got"

Potential Snowstorm- Tuesday-Wednesday

As I mentioned last week, there is still a potential for a decent snowfall for parts of southern Michigan, NWOH, and northern Indiana. However, this setup is much more complex than originally expected. I've been updating everyone on the chat bar to the right of this post for several days now.

What has happened is a very strong upper level low (seen below) cut off from the main trough. This has stayed fairly stationary today, but is expected to move generally northeast throughout tomorrow and overnight.

As this upper low moves to the northeast, a surface low is expected to track from the TN valley to the Ohio/PA border:

Now, usually this is an ideal spot for a significant winter storm for Western OH, North/West IN, and Southeast Michigan. However, this will not be the case for this storm. Due to the fact that this upper low comes from the southeast, plenty of warm air has already settled into the area. However, this is a very, very shallow layer of warm air, located within the lowest 150mb of the atmosphere. However, there are already questions with model predictions, because high temperatures today struggled to be reached.

Now, lets look at a few certainties for tomorrow:

1.) Precipitation will be almost all rain tomorrow morning/early afternoon
2.) A surface low will track east of the area, right around Erie PA
3.) The models have trended east in the past couple days.

Now, here's a few uncertainties:

1.) Will snow changeover to rain? If so, when?
2.) Where will the snow first begin to fly?
3.) Will ground temperatures limit accumulations?
4.) Is the cold/warm air still not forecasted correctly?
5.) How much snow will areas receive?

Unfortunately, many of these questions will not be answered until the event itself starts. There is still a decently large model spread between NCEP models and Global Models. The NAM has continued to rapidly shift to the east, giving Toledo 5" of snow based on raw BUFKIT numbers. The GFS, while also continuing to go to the east, still has north-central IN to Flint, MI as the heaviest snow swath.

What really throws a wrench into things is the ECMWF and UKMET. By far the most consistent models for this storm, the ECMWF has also slowly trended east, but much further east than any NCEP model. Shown here, and on AccuweatherPro ECM maps, the ECMWF has over 1" (liquid equivalent) of frozen precipitation for Fort Wayne/Extreme NWOH into SEMI. Based on accupro maps, the ECMWF shows a widespread 4-8" and even up to 10" plus in some areas. Below is an image from the link shown earlier this paragraph:

Another thing to note is the GGEM/RGEM from Environmental Canada (Their version of the NWS) show an earlier changeover to snow than the GFS/NAM, suggesting a bigger snow potential as well. The UKMET also appears to show something similar, while the GFS Ensembles also look to produce more snow than the operational.

For those looking for an easy forecast, shield your eyes from this storm. This is an extremely complex weather system, that likely will throw surprises at us even as we come ever closer to this possible snowstorm. Local meteorologists, NWS offices, and the HPC all seem to have different opinions, just as the models do. There are a few wildcards to watch, such as the amount of dynamic cooling that occurs in heavier precip, as that could cause an earlier switch to snow. Also, ground temperatures are going to be interesting, considering the amount of moisture in the soil right now. Sometimes heavy snow can accumulate quickly on a once warm and wet surface, and other times it does not matter.

I wish I could have a definitive answer for those reading this, but I honestly don't. My gut says that Fort Wayne to Flint gets the heaviest snow, likely over 4", while those east and west of there get slightly less. My preliminary forecast (take with a grain of salt) is 3-7" for NWIN/Southern MI, while NWOH gets 1-3". This could change a lot over the next 12-18 hours, so don't expect this to be a perfect forecast. I will likely be on and off the live chat for much of the night, so if you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask.

Anyways, this looks to be an exciting 36 hours!

Thanksgiving Week Forecast

I originally planed to do a video forecast for this, but it was not working. So although a day late, here is the week ahead:

Today into early Wednesday will have some light to moderate rainfall.

The heaviest rainfall will be along the I-70 corridor in Ohio, with less as you go further north and south. I have already picked up .2" of rain as I type this. Rain is expected to continue as the day progresses. As the low pressure system moves out of the Ohio Valley and towards the east coast, rainfall will slowly end, probably around the early morning tomorrow. 

Thankfully, this rain will end early enough for a beautiful Thanksgiving day. It won't be very warm, with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, but temperatures will rise a bit more on Friday, leading up to a nice start to the weekend. 

However, this is where the tough part of the forecast will be. The global models are all predicting a storm to move up west of here into the midwest, leading to rising temperatures and rainfall during late Saturday. What happens after that is up for grabs. The GFS has consistently closed off the 500mb low, leading to a cold air shortage, with temperatures in the low 40s in Indiana/Ohio, while temperatures in northern Alabama ending colder than us! There are already significant differences within the first 72 hours between the GFS and other models, so unless other models start to do that, it remains an outlier at the time. 

Another model to look at is the GGEM. 

Yesterday, it also cut off the 500mb low, although in a different position than the GFS. Today's 12z run leaves the s/w in the west behind, leading to a northern stream only solution. However, it holds back some energy, and it eventually rounds the base of the trough, leading to a storm up eastern Ohio. This would be a decent snowfall event for western Ohio and parts of MI if taken verbatim. However, inconsistency remains a big issue. 

The remaining models left are the UKMET and ECMWF. The UKMET has had some troubles in the long range, but is actually in second place, trailing the ECMWF on verification scores in the last month. Both the UKMET and ECMWF have a secondary low pressure system developing in the southeast US, but both have some differences in timing placement. The ECM showed over 6" of snow for some people in Ohio on yesterday's 12z run, than didn't do much on the 0z run. The 12z cycle is coming out soon, so I may go back and edit this post in an hour or so.

Hopefully by Thanksgiving we will have a better idea of what's going on. Right now I can't do much other than speculate that this could be a snow producer for some areas in the South/Central Great Lakes, but things could change rather rapidly. Until we get into the short range, the plot can only thicken. Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario/Michigan Weather Blog for More information on this storm and many others to come through the winter. 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Winter 2011-2012 Outlook

Overview

After a Strong La Nina last winter, it’s likely we will re-enter the La Nina threshold again this winter, but the La Nina won’t nearly be as strong as last year. After a rapid warming period this past spring, the La Nina has struggled to gain any strength over the summer. Currently, we have a MJO wave forecasted to move across the West Pacific (Phase 6/7), which is not typical of a La Nina. This is usually observed during El Nino events, such as 2009-2010. Current cooling continues at a very slow pace, which I expect to continue for several weeks as we head into winter. Some strengthening is also likely during November/December, before a peak around early January.

            

A look at the global pattern shows a bit of a mixed situation. A well defined –PDO is evident in the Pacific, but the GLAAM has risen into positive territory over the past couple weeks, along with the GWO in phase 6. As mentioned earlier, a robust MJO wave is currently moving into phase 6 as well. Current SST anomalies remain weak across the equatorial Pacific, with subsurface SSTs slowly diminishing over the past month. The coldest SST anomalies are located in the East Central ENSO Region. This suggests that any La Nina stronger than moderate territory is unlikely to develop for this winter.

So: What does this really mean?

The answer: A lot. I’m forecasting a weak La Nina to develop this year, which is shown by almost all seasonal forecasting models (see ECMWF, CFSv2 Below). A typical La Nina favors areas west of the I-95 corridor (which has seen the brunt of the last 2 winters). The QBO plays an interesting role this year. With a 50mb positive, 30mb slightly negative, and building negative anomalies at 10mb, the QBO will be very interesting to watch. What happens during the winter could greatly affect the overall winter pattern, so it’s worth watching closely during the next six to eight weeks. That being said, here’s my ENSO forecast month by month:

            Let’s take a look at a typical east/central based La Nina, going back approximately 100 years:

East-based to basin wide La Ninas have below normal temperatures extending from the Pacific Northwest across the Plains, Midwest, parts of the Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast United States. Slightly above normal temperatures are located in the southeast United States, due to a ridge commonly referred to as the “Southeast Ridge”, which almost always shows up during a La Nina episode. The strength and location of the ridge can greatly affect storm tracks, along with temperature gradients, especially in the Northeast.

Looking at previous La Ninas, specifically my analogs, you get this end result:

There’s a deep trough over the West Central U.S., with a –NAO signature in Greenland (Positive 500mb Heights). This image also appears to be “missing” something a typical Nina contains- the ridge in the southeast. It is there- but very weak. This keeps temperatures down slightly, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. However, with a ridge still there, this will “push” the storm track west of the coast, especially with the mean trough located towards the Plains. This suggests an active track through the southern plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley this year.

Analogs

This winter may end up being better than last winter in the Ohio/Michigan/Southern Ontario area. Here is my analog list for this winter:

·         1950-51

·         1964-65

·         1966-67

·         1967-68

·         1970-71

·         1973-74

·         1984-85

·         2007-2008

·         2008-2009

Of those nine analogs, eight featured above average snowfall for Toledo, Ohio. This included 5 winters of over 45” (1950, 1964, 1967, 2007, 2008). Of the 9 total analogs used, two had distinctly strong blocking in the previous two winters (’66-67, ’70-71), and only two did not have a –AO during the winter (’07-08, 08-09). However, the strength of the –AO was much weaker during my analog years then in winters preceding them. This is why I expect a weak  to neutral –AO during the winter. While a –AO favors a trough position favoring the east coast, a neutral to slightly positive AO is more favorable for the Midwest (as long as other telleconnections are also supportive). I expect this occur fairly often during this winter, with a very active storm track through the eastern third of the country. Frequent Colorado lows, panhandle hooks, gulf lows will be the primary storm tracks, especially during December, and again in February and March.

If we see a continuation of an active MJO in the West Pacific (Phase 6-7), we could see a more active Subtropical Jet (STJ) during the winter, after a “non-existent” STJ last winter. Even with a northern stream dominated winter like last year, you can still have an active pattern, but the STJ and “Pineapple Express” will only add more fuel to the fire. I don’t think that the STJ will be too active- which is why I have my precipitation maps looking like they do.

The Forecast

So, this is probably the reason you clicked on this anyways: the actual forecast. I’m sure most of you will skip through this text and look at the maps, and then may go back and actually read. If you do read this before you look at the “pretty” maps, then kudos to you.

Using the analogs mentioned above, this is the DJF composite you are left with:

And Precip:

Looking at these maps, you could not print out a better looking composite for the Great Lakes. As you can tell, the tendency is for below average temperatures and above average precipitation, especially centered from STL to Chicago, extending towards the Appalachains.

This is similar to what I expect during the this winter. Snowfall will also be above average in the Great Lakes, with below average snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic coast and south. Precipitation will be well above average in the Pacific Northwest this winter, with slightly below average precipitation in Oregon/No. Californina, with below average precipitation across the Arizona/New Mexico/Texas, along with slightly below average precipitation in the gulf states.

Individual Months:

November: Winter does not officially begin until Dec. 1^st, but I expect that late November will feel more like winter than fall. My analogs show a cold eastern US for November, and some early season snowfalls (November ’66 anyone?) wouldn’t be surprising. I believe winter starts after the 15^th, and continues into December. Temperature Forecast:

Precipitation Forecast:

December: I’m a bit skeptical about this month in general. I do think early December will be cool, but I think a brief warm up towards the middle of December is possible. Although temperatures end up near average, along with above average precipitation, I don’t think anybody east of Grand Rapids gets anything higher than slightly above average snowfall. However, one big storm could ruin that forecast, and if we do get a big storm during one of the active periods of the month, above average snow is likely across the Great Lakes. I do believe that after Christmas, most of the Great Lakes and Plains are back to below average temperatures, while the south and parts of the I-95 corridor stay a bit above normal. Temperatures:

Precipitation:

January: This is probably the toughest call on any month this winter. While the majority of winter forecasts I’ve seen call for a brutal month of cold and snow, again, I’m skeptical that this will occur. It’s not that I don’t think we’ll have below average temperatures for almost all of the country (especially central/west U.S.), I don’t think it will be nearly as cold as many are predicting. I do feel that late January into February will be an active period; see February’s discussion for that.

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

February: This is where I think the best part of winter will be. If you live in Michigan or Ohio you probably have fond memories of February ’08 (or if you live in D.C. or Philly, not so much), and something similar is possible again this winter. This is my “big” month in my forecast, and this is the time that could make or break the winter, especially west of the Appalachians. The temperature/precip composites for my top 9 analogs are suggesting a cold/snowy Midwest, and I’m not going to doubt it. Even in strong La Ninas (see last year), February and March can end up showing impressive snow totals in the Great Lakes Region. With a slightly more active STJ, along with a pretty tight thermal gradient, there could be some big storms during this period. Will we see another record setting February in the Midwest/Great Lakes? It’s definitely possible.  

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

March: Another toss-up here. My analogs are pretty much split down the middle, some extreme anomalies showing up. I don’t want to say anything about this month right now, because there are too many questions to answer at this time. When I release an updated outlook sometime in late October or early November, I should have more details on this month. For the time being, I won’t have any maps for this month.

Summary:

The active winters will continue in the eastern third of the country. Extreme cold, snowstorms, and even the possibility of ice storms in parts of the Mid Atlantic/Ohio Valley will be widespread for the majority of winter. If you didn’t get a great winter last year, this may be your year. We start off winter cold and stormy, then have a bit of a break in December. January starts off a bit slow, but quickly becomes more active, especially in the later portion of the month. February could be the heart of the winter, with cold and snowy conditions likely across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An active storm track will stay further west of last year’s, which isn’t good for the I-95 corridor to hear. With winter about 10-12 weeks away, it’s time to get ready for a very exciting winter!

Video:

Having technology troubles. Will be ready tomorrow!

Spring Storm to Bring Snow, Severe Weather

This was an extremely difficult forecast to make, and a map would be pretty difficult to illustrate my thoughts. Ice will be a bigger concern than I expected- with ice accumulations of about .25-.5" across Michigan, with the worst ice occurring somewhere between Detroit to Lake Orion. Areas around Ann Arbor will be getting more rain then anything else. Towards northern Michigan, temperatures will be cold enough to support a very good snowfall, with accumulations of 8"+ Possible. In Ontario, the axis of snow should be from Owen Sound to London, with accumulations around 2-4" on the borders of the snow axis, and about 4-8" in other areas. It wouldn't surprise me if areas towards Hamilton got over 8-12", because more precipitation will be falling there. South of Hamilton should get a mix of ice and rain, with warmer temperatures keeping the precipitation from being snow.

Selected cities forecast:

Detroit, MI- 1-2" snow, .2-.4" ice

Pontiac/Lake Orion, MI: 1-2" snow, .3-.6" ice

London, ONT: 2-5" snow, glaze of ice

Owen Sound, ONT: 1-3" snow

Toronto: 4-7" snow

Hamilton, ONT: 6-12" snow

Toledo, OH: T-1/2" snow, minimal ice

Cleveland, OH: T-1" snow, minimal ice

Another thing to watch is severe weather across central and southern Ohio. The SPC has placed those areas in a risk of severe storms:

As you can see, the current threat appears to be from a Cincinnati to Marietta line, along with areas in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. People in Dayton, Columbus, and Newark should also pay attention to the weather tomorrow, and listen for watches and warnings to be issued.

All types of severe weather are possible tomorrow, as these storms will develop along a very strong warm front. You can tell where the warm front is currently, as there is a 15-20 degree difference from Cincy to Dayton. This will slowly move northward tomorrow, bringing a moist and unstable airmass to most of Ohio. Some decent destabilization should be able to occur tomorrow, and in a very sheared environment. Although Hodographs aren't very curved (supporting supercells/tornadoes), discrete cells, and scattered bowed segments are likely to occur in the risk area tomorrow afternoon. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. These storms will also be racing east at 40-60mph, and if tornado warnings are issued, could create some very dangerous travel conditions.

After tomorrow, a cold airmass really settles in and overtakes the area for several days. There is still a potential for snow in Ohio during this period, but any specific details are unknown at this point. I will have an update on both the snow and severe storms either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

My Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

Winter 2010-2011 Forecast

As fall starts to peak and winter starts to approach, it’s time for many forecasters to issue a final winter outlook. At this time we are currently already in a moderate to borderline strong La Nina. This La Nina should peak by November and slowly weaken by the heart of winter. This current Nina coupled with a very +SOI, -GLAAM, and –PDO should create very interesting weather conditions across the U.S. and Canada. Before I get into the forecast, let’s see what is going on with the current La Nina.

With MEI bimonthly values of -1.9, the La Nina is currently the lowest on record at this point in time. This makes we want to believe that it will run out of steam by winter, with a weakening La Nina as winter starts. Currently our La Nina is Basin-Wide, but it appears it is trying to transition more to an east based La Nina. Current SST anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific reach -2.0 in the easternmost regions (Region 1.2 and 3), with higher anomalies in the more western regions. Although this may be temporary, many of the Long Range forecast models keep the La Nina central to east based, which may save the winter for parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley regions.

As of late we have seen a complete switch in the GWO/GLAAM/MJO phases compared to where we were for the majority of this season. We just saw a strong MJO wave with a move to Phase 6 over the last week or so… and the GWO is starting to propagate towards Phase 8. The GLAAM, which remained positive for almost the entire summer, has also suddenly switched back positive. However, this is should be fairly short lived, and I expect the GLAAM to be fairly negative throughout winter, with a “lag effect”- where the overall GLAAM remains negative for a few months after the La Nina peaks (Which I expect by November). This is based mostly on a hunch—but with such a strong La Nina, the GLAAM/GWO/MJO seem to be well coupled with the ENSO phase. The SOI is extremely positive, with some of the highest Monthly SOI values recorded in history. There is some of a correlation with high SOI years with a cooler than average North/Northeast compared to a typical Nina during this type of event, and I believe this may also be the case again this year.

The QBO also has taken a switch positive since the spring… coming off a long –QBO regime. A +QBO features positive Zonal Wind anomalies from 30mb-50mb (Although some places use up to 70mb, etc.) along the equator. As you can see in the image below, positive anomalies are starting to develop in the QBO regions, although it isn’t greatly positive yet. A +QBO in the winter tends to give a stronger Polar Vortex, which is harder to displace and cause those record breaking –AO values like last year. However, I still expect the northern 1/3 of the CONUS and Canada to be slightly cooler than average to very cold in the Northern Plains and PNW. +QBO’s aren’t typically associated with La Ninas, but the winters of ’71-72, ’73-74, ’75-76, did.

The 70s are gaining my interest, as they occurred during a –PDO phase just like we are starting now, although they occurred in a –AMO phase. With so many variables different about each ENSO event, I try to stay fairly far away from using analogues too heavily, although you could make an argument to support the use of them. As of now my primary analogues are ’73-74 and ’07-08. ’73-74 is my top one as it came off a strong El Nino… and had a -1.9C peak off the MEI. As I mentioned earlier, the current MEI value is already -1.99… .24*C lower than ’73… but it’s one of the closer fits that I could find. ’07-08 came off a moderate La Nina (+1.3C on the MEI scale) and progressed into a Moderate La Ninas. A –PDO/+AMO regime favors a –NAO pattern, but with a strong La Nina a Southeast Ridge is imminent this Winter. However, I feel that any arctic outbreaks that do make it to the northern U.S. should be very intense, and a storm or two during this timeframe could lead to a large snowstorm for many people.

Above is the image of my top 3 analogues (I also threw in 1964-1965 although it’s not my favorite analogue). I was also tempted to add 1903-1904 as an analogue but I can’t get accurate data as far as QBO/PDO/AMO go… but adding that does give a somewhat cooler average look, which I will mention later on. As you can see it will pretty much go along with my thoughts: Cold north, warm south and east. The Great Lakes is right on the edge of where the cold and warm collide-leading to several events that could create a tight rain/snow line, also giving the area many ice storms (although each storm should have a different area affected). This winter will have very steep total snow gradients highly affected by each storm. I also think that this winter will be slightly cooler than the analogues above, although it’s more of a hunch than anything else. Some strong blocking periods with a –NAO/-AO will be possible this winter, leading to some brutal cold snaps, as I mentioned previously.

Precipitation Anomalies should be fairly positive as indicated by my top 3 analogues above. Both rainfall and snowfall should be above normal, so long-lived snowpacks could be less frequent due to some warm-ups (Especially in January, where the Southeast Ridge strengthens), but snowfall should still end up above average. This does not mean a record breaking season like last year was for the Mid-Atlantic states, but respectable totals should be seen across the Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Plains regions. Elsewhere across the south precipitation and snowfall should be below average, with some droughts possible in the deep South.

With Nino Regions 1.2 and 3 continuing to strengthen despite this, I’m favoring an East Based La Nina, with its’ peak coming relatively soon, at least a few weeks before the start of the Winter Season. However, we will still feel the affects of the Southeast Ridge, and the worst of this should happen in January, with February and March to a lesser extent. I feel like The last few weeks of February into early March could really add on to snow totals, especially in the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast regions. Take a look at this image below:

Look at how cold it is for much of the Northern U.S. in these 4 years (All Moderate-Strong La Ninas) in February and March. With Precip. Anomalies looking like this:

It’s hard to not have above average snow in the Great Lakes and Midwest. I’m leaning towards one of the snowier 4 week periods recorded for the last half of February into the first half of March. Even if you take out 1903-1904 the results are very similar… so it supports my thinking of a Cold/Snowy end to winter.

The Forecast:

I’ve explained my reasoning very thoroughly above, and it’s time to get into the actually forecast.

The Winter should really get kicking by the second half of November… with cooler than average temperatures extending into the Northern US for much of November into Mid December. A big storm or two for the Midwest is possible during this timeframe, and it could be quite snowy for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Somewhere after the Christmas timeframe I think the SE Ridge starts to develop and hold strong across the southeast, making a real struggle against cold and warm air in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. Panhandle Hooks and “Bowling Ball” systems that track through the Eastern US should be the predominant storm track along with Alberta Clippers—which can produce several small accumulations that add up quickly. Most of the Southeast and Eastern Coast should end up 1-3 degrees above average while the Interior Northeast, Great Lakes, and Midwest end up at average or slightly below average. Precipitation should be above normal in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and PNW with average to below average precip. in the southern half of the country, along with the East Coast.

February should have the Ridge Collapsing in the east, leading to colder than average temperatures to take a hold of the Midwest and Great Lakes, along with the Ohio Valley and Northeast. This month should be one of the colder months along with March, and above average precipitation and snowfall is likely for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions. March should also be fairly similar to February, but after the first 15 days or so the pattern should slowly start to break down.

Winter Temperature Outlook:

Winter Precipitation Outlook:
Winter Snowfall Outlook:
Winter Snowfall Outlook:

This should be an entertaining winter for many of the folks that were disappointed by last year’s winter.