Post Christmas Snowstorm

While most of the time, Christmas and the days following are usually a tranquil time for enjoying the holidays, it appears that for many in the Great Lakes, a major storm will be disrupting many post Christmas plans. This storm has been on the radar for most meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. While significant differences between the models currently exists, I have delayed posting about this for long enough. For those looking for snow maps, I will not be posting an actual snow map today. I'm going to wait until late tomorrow or Christmas evening, depending on if the models come to a consensus in the next 24-48 hours.

This storm has a similar setup to the previous storm that ended up turning into a blizzard for the western Lakes. However, there are several differences between these two storms. ECMWF Ens. 500mb Height Anomalies:

 As you can see, a large trough develops over the central CONUS and eventually becomes negatively tilted as it crosses the Mississippi River by Christmas. The models agree on a very strong block to the west of Greenland, which helps keep this storm from cutting west into Michigan. There are several differences especially between the NAM and ECMWF in how each model handles the H5 low... with neither side really caving towards the other. The ECMWF is now on the southern side of the guidance and the NAM still leaning on the north side. For now, most NWS offices as well as the HPC have basically blended all guidance favoring a ECM Ensembles and GFS Ensembles blend. This puts the heaviest snow axis from Southwest Indiana to Southeast Michigan and into most of Southern Ontario.

At this time there is a high probability that some areas of Indiana/Ohio/Michigan and Ontario will get 6" or more. Toronto has consistently been progged to get more than 6-12" of snow from essentially every model... and I feel confident that this will be the storm that finally puts a dent in the snow drought seen in Toronto over the last couple years. 

Once again I am constantly on the chat bar on the right side of the blog and will be updating as much as I can between now and Wednesday... but due to the Christmas coming up, I will not be on here as much as I would like to be. 

Potential Storm Next Week

Hello everyone,

It's been a very long time since I've posted anything this year. There are several reasons for this that I don't want to explain, but the biggest reason is there simply hasn't been any significant weather around the southern Great Lakes this year. There will be another warm storm Tuesday, with a chance the rain turns to some light or moderate snow as precipitation winds down. That seems to be the story of this winter so far.

However, this is about to change, thanks to a series of shortwaves crossing the South-Central United States. The models now show that the third shortwave to eject out of the plains will form a very strong storm that moves through the Great Lakes late next week. Where this storm tracks and where snow will fall is still yet to be determined, but I believe this storm could be a major winter storm for some areas of the great lakes.

Looking at the ECMWF Ensembles, a deep trough across the Western US sets up around 120hr. This trough eventually works through the plains and into the great lakes by 144hrs. This, combined with a strongly west based -NAO with a -PNA, would favor a track somewhere through the great lakes, especially combined with a +EPO which typically leads to higher heights over the North Central CONUS. Right now, I expect a track to the west of Ohio and Eastern Michigan, with the most significant winter conditions well to the west in Iowa and Wisconsin.

That scenario is what the ECMWF suggests, and what I believe is most likely due to how quickly this system is amplified. However, there definitely is snow potential for all of the area this blog covers due to two things:
1.) Redevelopment of a secondary low, throws back some light precipitation
2.) LES after the storm stalls to the Northeast of here.

There is still several days for details to be worked out, so I'll be updating every day or so leading up to the storm.

Record Breaking Heat Tomorrow

As cooler weather ends, the end of June will spark a historic heat wave across the entire southern Great Lakes. Tomorrow, Thursday, June 28, may set the all time record high for Toledo's reporting station (KTOL). The hi-res NAM (shown above) shows consecutive hours of 105+ degree for the entire NWOH/SEMI area. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat warnings are in effect as the area prepares for a few days of record high temperatures.

The daily record highs for KTOL is 101F tomorrow, and the forecast high (albeit a bit low) is 101F. Thankfully, the worst of the heat wave will stay to the south and west of the area, and high 90s or low 100s will return through the end of the month and into the next week or two.

For more on this upcoming heat wave, check with the NWS for any updates on the forecast.