Post Christmas Snowstorm

While most of the time, Christmas and the days following are usually a tranquil time for enjoying the holidays, it appears that for many in the Great Lakes, a major storm will be disrupting many post Christmas plans. This storm has been on the radar for most meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. While significant differences between the models currently exists, I have delayed posting about this for long enough. For those looking for snow maps, I will not be posting an actual snow map today. I'm going to wait until late tomorrow or Christmas evening, depending on if the models come to a consensus in the next 24-48 hours.

This storm has a similar setup to the previous storm that ended up turning into a blizzard for the western Lakes. However, there are several differences between these two storms. ECMWF Ens. 500mb Height Anomalies:

 As you can see, a large trough develops over the central CONUS and eventually becomes negatively tilted as it crosses the Mississippi River by Christmas. The models agree on a very strong block to the west of Greenland, which helps keep this storm from cutting west into Michigan. There are several differences especially between the NAM and ECMWF in how each model handles the H5 low... with neither side really caving towards the other. The ECMWF is now on the southern side of the guidance and the NAM still leaning on the north side. For now, most NWS offices as well as the HPC have basically blended all guidance favoring a ECM Ensembles and GFS Ensembles blend. This puts the heaviest snow axis from Southwest Indiana to Southeast Michigan and into most of Southern Ontario.

At this time there is a high probability that some areas of Indiana/Ohio/Michigan and Ontario will get 6" or more. Toronto has consistently been progged to get more than 6-12" of snow from essentially every model... and I feel confident that this will be the storm that finally puts a dent in the snow drought seen in Toronto over the last couple years. 

Once again I am constantly on the chat bar on the right side of the blog and will be updating as much as I can between now and Wednesday... but due to the Christmas coming up, I will not be on here as much as I would like to be.