Severe Storms Possible Today

After a very dry start to June, there is a decent chance of severe storms today in Ohio, especially in the western portions of the state.  Leftover rain from an MCS is moving rapidly out of NW/West Ohio, which will clear out by 11AM.  This will lead to strong surface heating as a warm front moves up to the Ohio/Michigan border by the early afternoon.  A weak surface low will track into lower Michigan, with helicity values reaching 300m2/s2. This combined with shear around 30-40kts will allow for some isolated supercell development along the warm front, as long as there is decent lift to spawn those storms.

Sound familiar?  It's almost the exact same setup as June 5th, 2010.  This is an analogue that I never expected to use again- but the similarities are there.  There are two big differences though, which will prevent this from being as big of an event as that was.  First is shear- there is very little shear south of the warm front today.  Second, is Low Pressure strength. That event had a 1004mb low, this has about a 1010mb low.  However, the timing of frontal positions, etc. is extremely similar to that day.

Pay close attention later today.  Storms that develop along the warm front, while still is a moderately sheared atmosphere, have the potential to rotate very quickly, and proudce a tornado. The chances for tornadoes are still low (5% on the SPC outlook), and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail from multicell clusters.  

Stay tuned to the SPC and your local NWS forecast office for any updates on watches and warnings.

One Year Anniversary of the Millbury EF-4 Tornado

A year ago today, a small community was left devastated by the first EF-4 tornado since Van Wert in 2002, and the first in Wood County since 1953. During the middle of the night, a tornado ripped through Lake High School and moved into Millbury, killing 7 along the way. The next morning, the full extent of the damage was finally known, and the images of that day still haunt me.

This event has stuck with me every time I look at the computer models while making a forecast. I always have wondered if there was anything else myself, the National Weather Service, and Local Media outlets could have done to help prevent this. It was an impossible question to answer. I had been standing about 400 feet from where the tornado roared through Millbury 12 hours before it hit. When I saw the devastation on TV- I kept thinking that if had hit earlier that day, I might not be here writing this today.

That morning, you could tell something was different. It was hard to desrcibe- but the humidity felt more oppressive, and everything was silent. No birds chirping, nothing. Only the sound of a soccer game on a field that was narrowly missed by the tornado later that day. It didn't seem that weird at the time though- it was cloudy, and it even rained a bit in the early afternoon. Normally big severe weather days have a very sunny sky, with instability skyrocketing.

This wasn't the case on June 5th, where wind shear and dynamics were largely responsible for the tornadoes in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio that day. Over 50kts of Effective Shear and Effective SRH over 500m2/s2 was absolutely stunning to see so late in the day. Coupled with some minor instability from some clearing late in the day, it was a setup that had the potential to produce tornadoes- some violent. The SPC issued a Tornado Watch at 1010PM, and the first tornado report occurred at 1038 that night. The Millbury tornado hit 70 minutes later.

This was by far the worst tornado outbreak in the last decade for Northwest Ohio, and I hope I never see a similar setup here again. This will be a day I will always remember- and I hope anyone who reads this will too. Keep those who were affected by this tornado outbreak, and all the tornadoes this year in your thoughts and prayers.