Monday, November 14, 2011

Southern Ontario Winter Forecast 2011-2012

I apologize for not releasing my winter forecast. I've been extremely busy and probably won't have time to give a detailed look. So here's a brief look at what I am thinking. Here's what I see unfolding for Ontario this winter:

My prediction has always been that November will be warmer than usual across Southern Ontario with little to no snowfall. So far this has played out exactly how I have envisioned. I still see no major lake effect outbreaks this month, only minor (under 10cm) events that will usually melt within 24 hours. Although I am seeing a slight chance of a clipper hitting S. Ontario with 5-10cm of snow in the last 7 days of the month, this could easily be rain as well. Something tells me it will cut across Sudbury area. Northern Ontario will see some snowfall this month, but it won't last as temps will keep climbing above the freezing mark. Overall... no major snowstorms this month with below normal snowfall in general. Temps: Above seasonal.


Things change drastically in the first week of December. It's here where I see a strong potential for heavy lake effect snows (well over 30cm). I am also seeing a BIG snowstorm in the first ten days of the month for somewhere in Ontario. It looks to be a lake cutter at this point, where it goes, your guess is as good as mine. But somebody is going to get socked with this one. Temps will fall drastically this month compared to November. Lots of little lake effect events occurring throughout December with two potent clippers coming into S and E Ontario. After the 15th of December temps moderate with a potential rain/ice storm towards the 18th-22nd with more lake effect snows around Christmas eve through Boxing day making a white Christmas a hit and miss event. It will moderate again by New Years Eve with temps threatening to go above 0C. Overall: Above normal precip across all of S and E Ontario, although some of it could be ice and rain. Lake effect above normal.


Temps start off mild this month but will quickly get cold fast. Expect a huge swing to cold air by the second half of the month. A big snowstorm threatens parts of S and E Ontario by months end. This could easily be the seasons largest (30cm+) with enough cold air left in place from the big arctic push coming in around the 20th but lots of Gulf moisture as well. Another big lake effect event will occur around mid-month with the arrival of this cold air. Again, the hardest hit snowbelts will get 30-60cm easily. This will be the seasons coldest air with daytime highs in Toronto around minus 20C. Temps will end near normal for the month but may be 1C below normal depending on how intense this cold burst is.

Most of Ontario will be white by this point. Temps will stay below 0C and frequent clippers will threaten the area with several "5-10cm" events occurring. Each clipper will re-enforce the cold air and produce lake effect flurries. The lakes will be mostly frozen by the 2nd week of Feb, essentially shutting down the lake effect machine, or minimizing it to under 10cm events. I am seeing a brief Valentines Day warmup with a potential rainstorm (or snowstorm for Central Ontario) before the cold air returns by the 17th-20th. Overall, Feb will be 1-2C colder than normal with lots of storms and clippers to keep everyone happy.

March will be colder than normal across S Ontario especially in the first two weeks. I see another moderate to large snowstorm hitting all of S and E Ontario around the 5th-10th timeframe. This one should deliver amounts of 15-30cm widespread. Perfect the spring break ski resort season. After the 15th, temps climb above zero although a few days of 0C to minus 5 can still be expected. Another snowstorm threatens by months end although I am betting on rain for S. Ontario and heavy snow in North Bay/Sudbury area. Overall, temps will average 1C below normal for this month. Precip above normal.

2011/2012 Winter Snowfall Projections:

Toronto: 150-160cm (above normal)
Barrie: 280cm (above normal)
London: 260cm (above normal)
Kitchener: 170cm (above normal)
Windsor: 130cm (near normal)
Niagara Falls: 170cm (above normal)
Alliston: 200cm (above normal)
Ottawa: 280cm (above normal)
Sudbury: 320cm (above normal)
Collingwood: 250cm (above normal)


  1. Ah if only this was correct! This winter has been so depressing for me here in London, Ontario

  2. Well your forecast is way off the mark...maybe we should take all the forecasts available, and create a new one opposite of the experts and we may have reality....January 27th 1'C, 150mm (even thats a stretch) snow on the ground with no real cold or snow in the forecast in Muskoka...that pretty much says it all

  3. i hope you plan to give up this forecasting junk... even our horribly conservative news casts are more accurate than this! You could have easily seen in weather patterns over 6 months ago that this was to be a milder than usual winter and yet you still made up a bunch of crap posting it to be above normal snow wise???

  4. please dont ever get a government job forecasting,its bad enough how many tax dollars are wasted,you'd make it even worse.

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