Afternoon Update

Since I've been unable to access the internet or the chat since this morning, I haven't been able to update you on what could be a potentially very snow situation. As I type... Defiance county has changed over to snow, and a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for extreme NWOH. Storm totals could exceed 5-6" in far NWOH. Elsewhere in OH... rain is about to changeover to snow within the next few hours. Looking at SPC Mesoanalysis... both 850mb and 925mb temperatures are below freezing east of I-75 and south of I-80. This is why snow is not falling in parts of SEMI currently, while the Route 6 corridor is changing over. Based on hi-res models, the deformation band is expected to pivot over NWOH during the overnight hours, while slowly losing its moisture supply. The storms highest accumulations look to be in Northeast Indiana, where some double digit totals could be found.

One thing to note is the extremely sharp gradient on either side of the main precip. The HRW-NMM showed about .6-.8" of precip with the deformation band, while the ARW showed much less. This is why watching radar trends is important. Obviously, the best banding will pretty much sit over IN for much of the time, which is why they have the highest totals. However, given the fact that snow is falling much sooner than the NWS/Local Media outlet forecasts, snow totals (even mine) should be bumped up, and somewhat significantly. For areas under a WSW in NWOH, expect 4-8"+. Those east of I-75 can expect 2-4", possibly more, while areas east of Wood county should expect a general coating to an isolated 1-2" in area.

In SEMI... it appears east metro Detroit will barely get an inch or two, with areas west of there getting up to 6" in some spots. Some areas in Indiana/NWOH/SCMI could get some thundersnow later today as well.

This is what I was talking about earlier, with these little details not being known until it actually happened. For those who enjoy snow, it worked out in your favor.