The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe storms today. Most of Ohio is in the Slight Risk, but extreme portions of Western OH are in the Moderate Risk. The main threats today will be large hail and damaging winds, with the potential for isolated tornadoes. Storms should develop late this evening, and move east into Ohio by the overnight hours.
A warm layer aloft this afternoon will keep things Capped off, preventing any storms to develop, and allowing more destabilization south of the warm front. The surface low will move from Missouri to Northeast Indiana, putting the warm front by the I-80 corridor by around 8-11PM. We should be in a highly sheared environment, and we do have strong winds just above the surface- 50-60kts at 925mb, so any storms that can mix down those winds could create damaging winds.
Storm timing in Western OH should be around 9PM-12AM, with storms arriving later in Central and Eastern Ohio. Although hail and winds are the most likely threats today, I'm still worried about the potential for a isolated strong tornado somewhere in Indiana or Ohio after dark, which would be extremely dangerous.
Pay attention to updates from your local NWS forecasting office, along with the Storm Prediction Center and local media. I will have an update this afternoon updating the situation.
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