What Can Turn This Winter Around?

As you all have probably noticed in the last two months, this winter has, to be quite honest, this winter has sucked for snow and cold lovers, and also for businesses that depend on the snow. This winter has been dominated by extremely warm temperatures for the entire CONUS, as illustrated above. I don't even want to look at how bad my winter forecast has been temperature wise, because I know it's been terrible, although many other have as well.

There are a few key reasons why this winter has been so warm. The stratosphere is largely responsible for the first one, because of nearly record cold temperatures throughout all levels of the stratosphere. However, this has changed recently, and has been slowly warming the last week or so. Another SSW is expected to occur around mid-month, as shown by the GFS and ECMWF:

(click to see animation)

The ultimate goal for this is to split the polar vortex, which would lead to a -AO, and ultimately ending this terrible pattern of warmth. However, I don't like the looks of what the MJO continues to do, which is constantly avoid any good phase for cold weather (1-2, & 8). Obviously it would be ideal to have the MJO in phase 8, but if not, I would like to see the MJO in the COD, to avoid as much interaction with the weather pattern as it has had recently.

Even without an SSW, it looks like there will be at least a temporary shift to cooler weather in the next week, as the AO and EPO finally start to tank. As I've mentioned before, the AO has been horrendous this year (near record high December) and finally looks to be shifting to primarily negative. The Alaskan Vortex also looks to be significantly weakened, and will allow ridging to build in Alaska, leading to a -EPO. This should allow cold air to start building in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, but it will be a slow process. But any change is better than what the pattern has been like this year, and I fully believe the worst of this winter is over (it can't get much worse, can it?). After mid-January, I would expect the pattern to start to get colder and snowier. I think February could still end up below average, but not nearly as cold as I forecasted in my winter outlook.

My attention is also drawn to another cut-off system coming around the 12th. Cut-off lows are extremely difficult to model (and subsequently forecast), so not much can be taken verbatim more than 24-48 hours out. We've seen surprises from the frequent cut-offs this year (November 30th, and a lot of December storms), so anything can happen. However, without a good phase with the progressive northern stream branch, it appears unlikely to give anyone frozen precip. There have been a couple runs of the GFS that have looked decent, along with a couple other foreign model runs, but the overall consensus has been either a complete miss or a warm, rainy storm. Again, things could change very quickly as the northern stream wave gets sampled.

Again, the pattern is slowly changing. The key word is slowly, but it is changing nonetheless. Hopefully, a major storm or two can develop later this month or February, saving snow totals for the season. 

Powerful Storm to Affect Great Lakes

A powerful storm system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region this week. A low pressure system will develop in the southeast United States and move northeast, while strengthening rapidly. The NAM and GFS for the "peak" of the storm are shown below:

As you can tell, this is a very strong system (Below 985mb). Now, as much as I hate to speculate, but if we were to see a storm track like that during winter, this would be a huge snow producer. Unfortunately for the winter lovers, this is still October, and this will all be rain. Surface temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 40s for Northern OH, Southern MI and Ontario, so a cold rain is likely for more than 2 days. With a solid moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, this storm will produce copious amounts of rainfall across the area. Current model forecasts and the HPC suggest a potential for up to 4-5" of rain, especially in SEMI and NWOH. Depending on the amount of moisture and low pressure track, this could change considerably, but I'm confident the majority of the forecast region will receive more than 2" of rain from this system.

Not only will this system produce heavy rain, but high winds are also a bit of a concern. Surface winds are expecting to be around 20-30mph, with higher gusts. Winds just above the surface are at about 50mph, so winds that make it down to the surface will be quite strong.

Towards the end of the storm, I would not be surprised if there were some localized reports of snow/sleet/graupel, although the coldest upper level temperatures occur during the day. Still, temperatures columns are not favorable for any persistent snowfall or accumulations.

Looking ahead, it appears we will be fairly active over the next couple weeks, but nothing too significant. Stay tuned for updates on this storm and others.

Great Weather Expected this weekend

After tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds went through Ohio, Michigan and Southern Ontario earlier this week, we could use a break from the storms. That's exactly what we'll have the next week or so, with sunny skies and low 80s for highs. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in the mid 70s, especially in southern Michigan and Ontario on Sunday and Monday. This great weather will continue into next week.

Scattered Thunderstorms Likely for the Weekend

Scattered Thunderstorms are likely across all of Ohio, southern Michigan and southern Ontario this weekend as a surface low in the plains slowly moves east. There is a slight chance for severe weather with these storms, which could contain damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. There is also a flash flood watch for northern Ohio after heavy rainfall yesterday.

SPC Outlooks:
Today:

Tomorrow:

Many of these storms will be slow moving due to weak upper level winds and low shear, so any storms that do develop may "sit" over a small area for a long period of time. However, a general storm motion of about 20-25mph will be more common.

Hot temperatures will also reside over the entire area once again, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler after this system moves out, but temps will rebound into the mid 90s again next week. Check the NWS for any heat warnings/advisories for your area.

Finally, I'm leaving for Colorado later today, and I'm not sure if or when I'll be able to check in again for the next week. I'll try to at least get on the chat a few times, but I cannot guarantee anything.

Weather for the Week

After an absolutely gorgeous past 4 days, the weather is expected to get rainier over the next few days.  Although temperatures should remain cool, showers and thunderstorms are expected from Wednesday to Friday.  Showers and storms should develop and move east-northeast into  Northwest Ohio by late afternoon tomorrow.  These storms are not expected to be severe.  However, some isolated severe weather is possible further south towards Dayton, Columbus, and Cincinnati, but the overall potential looks very limited.  Rain should move into Southern Michigan and eventually weaken in Ontario on Thursday, while isolated storms will move through Ohio during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts should range from 1/4" to 3/4" in Ohio, with less in extreme southern Ontario.  Less than a tenth of an inch (2-3mm) of rain is currently expected in the Greater Toronto Area.

Temperatures will generally range in the low to mid 70s (21-27C), but rain could keep local areas from warming up as much.