Severe Storms Possible Today

After a very dry start to June, there is a decent chance of severe storms today in Ohio, especially in the western portions of the state.  Leftover rain from an MCS is moving rapidly out of NW/West Ohio, which will clear out by 11AM.  This will lead to strong surface heating as a warm front moves up to the Ohio/Michigan border by the early afternoon.  A weak surface low will track into lower Michigan, with helicity values reaching 300m2/s2. This combined with shear around 30-40kts will allow for some isolated supercell development along the warm front, as long as there is decent lift to spawn those storms.

Sound familiar?  It's almost the exact same setup as June 5th, 2010.  This is an analogue that I never expected to use again- but the similarities are there.  There are two big differences though, which will prevent this from being as big of an event as that was.  First is shear- there is very little shear south of the warm front today.  Second, is Low Pressure strength. That event had a 1004mb low, this has about a 1010mb low.  However, the timing of frontal positions, etc. is extremely similar to that day.

Pay close attention later today.  Storms that develop along the warm front, while still is a moderately sheared atmosphere, have the potential to rotate very quickly, and proudce a tornado. The chances for tornadoes are still low (5% on the SPC outlook), and the main threats are damaging winds and large hail from multicell clusters.  

Stay tuned to the SPC and your local NWS forecast office for any updates on watches and warnings.

Slight to Moderate Risk of Severe Storms

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As I expected, there is a potential tornado outbreak to track in Indiana-which will move into western Ohio by later that evening. As the warm front clears later in the day, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize. CAPE values will rise to AOA (At or above) 2000J/kg by 8PM. During this time, supercells are expected to develop in Indiana and Illinois, which will move into western Ohio. The HRRR is showing over 70kts of bulk shear in NWOH, and large clockwise turning hodographs, the potential for tornadoes, some strong, it very high, especially in Indiana and South/West. These supercells will also contain large hail and the threat of mircobursts, so this is definitely something to watch very carefully. I will not be able to access the quick chat on the side of the blog, but I will still be able to post throughout the day.