Severe Weather Outbreak Underway

As expected, there has been a significant development of storms in the last few hours. Much of Western Ohio and Indiana are now under a Tornado watch until late this evening. As of right now (3PM), the warm front from a 1000mb surface low in north/central IN is located across the Route 6 corridor. As a result, a strong temperature gradient exists, with Toledo in the mid 50s with a light northerly breeze, while Findlay is in the middle sixties with a strong southely breeze. Although cloud cover has kept intability down, severe storms have sufficient fuel with a 90kt wind at 500mb, this is an incredible situation. Even winds at 925mb are at 50kts in NWOH!

As I type, storms in Indiana and extreme NWOH are moving NW at around 50-60mph. This direction has limited easteward movement of these storms in the last hour or two. However, slow movement east is expected as the cold front pushes east later this afternoon. The SPC has kept the 10% hatched tornado probs in areas that have had more instability develop. A large area of 50kt 0-1km shear will be plenty enough to aid for potentially strong tornadoes today.

This is a serious situation. If you are in the path of these storms, take cover immediately. The potential for tornadoes, potentially strong, exists. The greatest potential for tornadoes is a triangle from Findlay, OH to Colubmus, to Indianapolis, IN.

Slight Risk for Severe Storms Today

The SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms in much of Ohio today. This is largely due to upper level dynamics, rather than instability like we see during the spring and summer months. A low pressure system will move across Michigan this afternoon, with a cold front extending through IL/IN. Storms will initiate just ahead of the cold front, which will move east at a fast pace. The main threat will be damaging winds, but tornadoes are definitely a possibility due to strong dynamics aloft. The SPC has recently upgraded to a high end slight risk- and depending on how the afternoon evolves, an upgrade to a moderate risk of storms is possible in later updates, probably in a triangle from Indy to Lima to Columbus.

The most impressive thing about today is the upper level winds. Winds at 500mb are approximately 60-90kts, which will lead to an incredible amount of shear. What's also extremely impressive thing about this event is the 190kt jet streak over northern Michigan. That is not very typical for a mid-November storm, so today could be a very unusual day. Storm motion will likely be WNW at around 60mph, so be alert for ever changing conditions in your area. Today has the potential to be somewhat similar to November 2002, which had a strong tornadoes across the Great Lakes area. While the size of that outbreak was much larger, the potential for a few strong tornadoes is present today.

Stay tuned to the SPC, NWS, and The Ohio/Ontario weather blog for more updates during the day