More Severe Weather Today

At the 12:30 PM update, the SPC put much of Northern Ohio in a slight risk of severe storms for today. At this time, damaging winds gusts appear to be the main threat, with hail be a secondary threat. The tornado risk appears to be quite limited at this time. Storms are expected to develop over Indiana later this afternoon and move east at 40-50mph.

Parameters in Ohio are some of the most impressive I've seen in the last few years, so if storms do manage to develop, they should quickly become severe. 500mb winds are around 50kts, with shear limited as of right now, but that should slowly change during the day. SBCAPE is in excess of 4000J/kg in most of Ohio, along with LI's of -10. Lapse Rates are around 8.5. Although SRH is limited as of now, I have a feeling that we could see more storm reports along the I-80/Route 6 corridor in Northern Ohio than we did on Sunday.

One thing to watch is how well the Hi-res models do today after they did not do well last weekend. Although they can be helpful, monitoring radar trends will ultimately be more important than anything else today. If any watches are issued for the area, I will update the blog. As always, pay close attention to the Ohio/Ontario Weather Blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for any updates during the day

Slight/Moderate Risk of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has put northwest and northern Ohio under a slight risk of severe storms for this afternoon. This could possibly be upgraded to a moderate risk by 12:30PM today.

A rapidly destabilizing atmosphere this morning and afternoon will lead to extreme instability here. CAPE in excess of 4000J/kg is possible along the Route 6 to I-80 corridor in Indiana and extreme Northwest Ohio. With 40kts of Bulk shear ahead of the bow echo in Iowa, continued storm organization is likely as it travels East to ENE at 50mph. If this does evolve into a derecho, a large swath of damaging winds and large hail will be likely. Tornadoes are also possible, especially further west into IL/IN as up to 100 degrees of turning from 500mb to the surface is possible. Hodographs show a large, counterclockwise moving line, which would support the idea that some tornadoes could form either within the line, or in discrete cells that travel along the warm front.

A Severe Thunderstorm watch has already been issued for Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana for this possible derecho.

Although I'm confident we see some storms around our area, I'm worried that:

a.) There will be too strong of a CAP (High 700mb temperatures), and that storm development will be slow or nonexistant

b.) The derecho travels along the warm front, which will keep it towards the Ann Arbor/Detroit area.

c.) The derecho weakens, and there isn't enough forcing to create more storms

Stay tuned to the Ohio/Ontario weather blog, the SPC, and your local NWS office for watches, warnings, and other updates